Ethiopia’s conflict spills over border as thousands flee

Ethiopia’s deadly conflict with its northern Tigray region spilled over the border yesterday as several thousand people fled into Sudan, along with soldiers seeking protection, while the Tigray regional leader accused Eritrea of attacking at the request of Ethiopia’s federal government.

Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prizewinning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rejected international pleas for dialogue with the Tigray regional leaders, saying there would be no negotiations until the “law enforcement operation” is over. He seeks to arrest the heads of a regional Government his administration regards as illegal while destroying its wellstocked arsenal.

Even as Britain and the African Union urged an immediate deescalation, Abiy vowed the military would bring a speedy end to the fighting. But experts warned the conflict could drag on and destabilise one of Africa’s most powerful nations.

The flow of refugees is the first visible sign of a growing humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people at the heart of the Horn of Africa. Tigray remains almost completely cut off from the world nearly a week after communications were severed and Abiy announced a military offensive in response to an alleged attack on a military base.

The United Nations and partners in Sudan are preparing for 20,000 refugees, at least initially.

Hundreds of people have been reported killed on both sides of the conflict so far, one diplomat in the capital, Addis Ababa, said. It remained difficult to confirm either side’s claims. Each blames the other for sparking the conflict.

The British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, joined the pressure on Abiy, saying he spoke with the prime minister and urged a de-escalation of the conflict: “Civilians and humanitarian access must be protected.”

The AU Commission chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for an immediate ceasefire and stood ready to support an “inter-Ethiopian effort in the pursuit of peace”.

By yesterday, the number of fleeing Ethiopians to Sudan’s border province of Kassala and al-Qadarif surged past 6000, the state-run SUNA news agency reported. The agency, citing unidentified officials, said more than 200,000 Ethiopians were expected to cross into Sudan in the coming days.

Sudan, which has sent more than 6000 troops to the border, is under pressure from the international community to help make peace.

Eritrea, long at bitter odds with the Tigray regional Government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, is more challenging. Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael, in televised remarks, alleged that Eritrea “started taking military action since yesterday” and fired heavy weaponry at Humera, near the border with Eritrea and Sudan, “so that our people would panic”.

“Therefore, the war has now progressed to a different stage,” he said. Eritrean officials did not respond to requests for comment.

Diplomats and others assert that the conflict in Tigray could destabilise the region and other parts of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country with 110 million people. Ethiopia has scores of ethnic groups and other regions that have sought more autonomy, and some experts worry about further fracturing of a country already plagued by deadly ethnic violence.

Aid groups warn humanitarian needs will grow alarmingly as the conflict drags on.

“It’s a very serious situation,” Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, UN humanitarian chief for Ethiopia, said.

“It looks like, unfortunately, this may not be something that can be resolved in a week or two. It looks like it’s going to be a protracted conflict, which is a huge concern from the point of view of protection of civilians.”