Cyclone over Pacific looming threat to NZ
The first tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the southwest Pacific, and some models have it tracking directly on to New Zealand just before Christmas.
Niwa forecasters said yesterday that Cyclone Yasa was lying between Vanuatu and Fiji. A second cyclone, to be named Zazu, was expected to form overnight.
Weatherwatch.co.nz said Yasa would spend the next couple of days spinning in a giant circle gaining strength. It is expected to go from a category 1 storm to category 3 by the time it brushes past Fiji tomorrow.
While Fijians are being put on alert, Weatherwatch said modelling from various agencies showed a 40 per cent chance Yasa could make it to New Zealand about a week from now.
One scenario has the potentially destructive cyclone off Northland and veering down on to the top of the country on Monday.
“WeatherWatch has about40 per cent confidence this low will make it to New Zealand, probably one week from now. However, the storm will be going through a major structural change at this point . . . A number of future scenarios are possible, from a serious major hit to a weak low that only brings some rain, to one that falls apart and misses NZ entirely.”
WeatherWatch said the confidence level was based on modelling from various agencies over the past several days and reflected its current confidence.
In October Niwa warned NZ faced slightly higher odds of experiencing an ex-tropical cyclone over the next six months, on the back of warmer seas and a building La Nina system.
Each season — usually around late summer — at least one of these wild and destructive climate systems travels within 550km of New Zealand, packing high winds and heavy rain.
This season, Niwa is forecasting the potential for two.