New big jolt just ‘typical’

Monday night’s jolt was nearly the largest of nearly 3000 aftershocks recorded since the East Cape’s big 7.3 quake.

However, scientists say the sequence is playing out as expected.

As at yesterday morning, GeoNet had recorded 2871 aftershocks since March 5, when a large and complex 2.27am quake struck about 125km east of Te Araroa.

That event was powerful enough to push parts of the East Cape and Hawke’s Bay about 1cm to the west and southwest.

It also triggered a sizeable sequence of aftershocks, with 17 so far measuring over 5.0.

Among them was a 6.2 quake that hit the following day, and a 6.1 event that was felt by around 7000 people when it struck at 7.37pm on Monday, and just over a month later.

GNS Science duty seismologist Elizabeth Abbott described the sequence to date as “pretty typical”.

She said it wasn’t unexpected to see another quake larger than 6.0.

In its most recent aftershock forecast, GNS put the probability of one or more earthquakes of that size striking within the month at 25 to 30 per cent, and, within a year, as high as 60 to 70 per cent.