Delta blindsides NSW as cases continue to grow

Surprise lockdown isn’t having an effect

NSW was the model state on controlling Covid-19 before the Delta variant came along. But the virus has surprised even experts in the field. Covid-19 cases in Greater Sydney remain stubbornly high despite authorities’ best efforts and Delta’s relentless spread has shocked even some experts.

There were 141 locally transmitted cases of Covid-19 in the latest reporting period yesterday with a woman aged in her 30s dying from the virus. She had no underlying health conditions before contracting the virus.

It comes after the state recorded 163 on Saturday — a new daily record for the state. Of these, 38 were in the community while infectious.

Testing numbers were also broken on Saturday with 94,000 swabs taken — this was again topped yesterday with more than 102,000 tests recorded.

Health authorities have said the virus is largely being spread through workplaces and shops.

Burnet Institute epidemiologist Professor Michael Toole said the institute was “surprised and disappointed” that no clear impact of the original stage three restrictions announced in NSW on June 26 — including mandatory masks, stay-athome orders and a limit of five guests in homes — had yet been seen.

Toole said they would have expected to see the impact of the restrictions by now.

He said the same level of restrictions introduced in Melbourne last year (before masks became mandatory) reduced the reproductive rate by about 15-20 per cent and this led to a “hinge” or significant bend in the outbreak’s trajectory 14 days later.

There’s been no hinge yet in Sydney.

It is just one of the ways the Delta variant has defied expectations and disrupted the well-oiled response that has so far kept outbreaks under control and NSW’s economy open.

NSW authorities say the situation in Sydney’s southwestern and western suburbs is now a “national emergency” and they will focus their efforts on stopping the spread in five local government areas.

On Friday, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian called on the national cabinet to urgently redirect extra vaccine doses to these residents, including for the mass vaccination of workers aged under 40 years old.

But that request – which Berejiklian did not formally put to the Commonwealth and the other states – has been rejected by other states.

Deakin University epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett said the country was in a transition phase when it came to dealing with Covid19.

“Our old methods — whether they were in Melbourne or Sydney — worked before but neither work now,” she said.

While the Sydney lockdown did not yet look to be driving cases down, Bennett said it was keeping a lid on infections.

“It’s buying time to figure out how on earth to shut down transmissions and to close this off completely,” she said.

But public health expert Professor Joel Negin of Sydney University said the outbreak in Greater Sydney was “pretty close” to spinning out of control.

“I think we all have to admit that the containment methods for this Delta variant are not looking great and we might need to be changing our expectations for what victory is here.”

He said the old model of traditional contact tracing and getting the number of new cases down to zero, which has defined the Australian response, may not be achievable in the current environment.