Biden takes two paths on old conflicts

More incentives for US to stay in Iraq than Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations, said a reluctance to exit Iraq altogether “might be a hangover from the Obama decision to leave only to have to reenter”.

And while US officials insist they are not keeping troops in Iraq to fight Iran or Iran-backed militias, the military presence there also allows the US to monitor Iran more closely. The drone strike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, a powerful Iranian commander, for instance, was launched from Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq.

“US troops in Iraq help in a political sense balance or contain Iran, which is a serious regional threat,” said James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq.

The incentives to stay, combined with the lack of political pressure at home to leave, made Biden’s announcement yesterday mostly a set piece of diplomatic theatre that did little more than formalise the current state of play.

“The objective of both sides is for nothing to change and to keep about 2500 US troops there that would do things they are already doing,” said Sarhang Hamasaeed, the director of Middle East programmes at the United States Institute of Peace. “That’s supporting Iraqi security forces, but not engage in combat.”

US troops no longer accompany Iraqi forces hunting remaining pockets of Isis fighters. Still, experts in the region said the announcement yesterday suited both the Iraqi and the US governments in their policy objectives, even if it did little to change the situation on the ground in Iraq.

“The Iraqi Government can say we’re less reliant on these foreigners, and the Biden Administration can point to this as another example of how it is dialling down America’s involvement in these long-term conflicts in the Middle East,” Haass said.

Indeed, al-Kadhimi has been under pressure from Iraq’s Shia political parties to end the US mission in Iraq altogether ever since the strike in January 2020 that killed Soleimani and an Iraqi militia commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

“You leave Iraq, Iran will go deeper and deeper and dominate the state, giving them control over strategic energy reserves,” Hamasaeed said. “That’s not good for the global economy and stability and efforts to curb Iran’s agenda in the region.”