Expectations for ABs must fall as schedule tipped on its ear

An All Blacks season that already had a high degree of difficulty has become arguably the toughest for the national team in professional history.

No one should be under any illusions at just what a monumentally difficult few months lie ahead for the All Blacks as they battle many of the best teams in the world in a brutal schedule which will demand they play 12 tests in 16 weeks, but they will also be spending at least 10 weeks based offshore.

The events of last Friday changed the complexion of the All Blacks’ season. The decision to close the travel bubble meant nine home tests were reduced to seven and that the All Blacks would no longer be spending just one week in Australia, but now most likely five.

Confirmation yesterday they will play the United States in Washington DC on October 23 means their end of year tour is going to feature five tests, not four, and another week at home has been lost.

The All Blacks are due back in camp on Sunday to prepare for the first Bledisloe Cup test in Auckland on August 7.

As recently as last Thursday, they were looking at spending 11 of the next 12 weeks after that in New Zealand before heading to Cardiff to play Wales around October 23.

But now they will spend at least five of those 12 weeks in Australia, with another in the US.

And that’s a best-case scenario now as the uncertainty around border openings means they could yet end up having to play South Africa in Australia if the New Zealand government extends the closure of the travel bubble beyond eight weeks.

And uncertainty is now, arguably, as great an enemy as time away from home.

All they can be sure of is that they are playing the Wallabies at Eden Park on August 7 and probably again, mostly likely in Wellington, with the date to be confirmed.

They will then face a test in Perth on August 21 as per the original calendar but what happens after that is still to be locked in.

They will play Argentina in Australia but dates and venues are yet to be confirmed.

They hope they will be able to come back to New Zealand to play the Springboks on September 25 in Dunedin and October 2 in Auckland — but that depends on the travel bubble reopening on time.

If it’s delayed, they will most likely have to play the Boks in Australia and hope the bubble is reopened in time for them to come home from

Australia without having to do

14 days of quarantine before they head to the US to play there on October 23.

The All Blacks are retaining their stiff upper lip about their season being tipped upside down — continuing to talk of this being their new normal and applying the lessons they learned last year.

But putting a brave face on it doesn’t change the fact that 2021 is going to border on being impossibly tough and perhaps expectations have to be tempered to reflect the severity of the difficulty factor.

Judging what will now constitute a good season is almost as difficult as the schedule the All Blacks now face. Retaining the Bledisloe Cup is still a fair enough expectation.

That schedule hasn’t materially changed.

Winning the Rugby Championship, however, becomes significantly harder for the All Blacks as a result of switching two tests against Argentina from New Zealand to Australia.

The All Blacks, who spent six weeks playing four Rugby Championship tests in Australia last year, didn’t cope too well with that set-up.

There is a case to be made that life will be yet more difficult for both the Pumas and Springboks having to spend all tournament away from home and therefore the expectation should remain that the All Blacks are the favourites for the title.

But if they can’t get back to New Zealand to play the Boks, it will be a tough ask for the All Blacks to win another title and even tougher again to expect that they can head to Europe and come home undefeated after tests against Wales, Ireland, France and Italy, after they play the US.

There has to be a dose of realism applied now and expectations lowered because this season is uniquely challenging.