Alone at level 4 — for how long?
Modellers believe Covid’s long tail may mean longer in tougher lockdown
Auckland wakes this morning as the only region in the country under alert level 4 restrictions — and one expert has warned that could remain the case for several weeks to come.
After negative wastewater testing in Northland, the Government shifted the region to level 3 at midnight.
Those restrictions could be in place for some time, with experts expressing disappointment that the number of new daily cases is not falling fast enough for Auckland to move down alert levels.
Although there are signs of optimism — case numbers fell to 49 yesterday and continue to trend down — there are fears the virus in Auckland will have a long tail, necessitating longer in higher alert levels.
Cabinet has pencilled in reviews of the alert level settings over the next fortnight. Next Tuesday, September 6, it will review alert level settings for the country, bar Auckland, which faces a review on September 13.
If lockdown is further extended by a week after that, it will be the longest any part of NZ has spent at level 4.
Professor Shaun Hendy, a Covid19 modeller at the University of Auckland, said the “downward trend is
starting to become much clearer, which is great and means we are on track to eliminate this outbreak”.
But he warned that cases were still high. “We’d like to see it come down faster though, so we can relax alert level 4 as soon as possible.
“Given we are seeing some spread in workplaces, this may require employers to take another look at their practices, including making sure masks are being used and . . . indoor workspaces are well ventilated.”
Moving out of level 4 in two weeks was “probably looking a bit tight, but it’s not impossible . . . more likely something like three to four weeks”.
Wigram Capital Advisors’ Rodney Jones, who has also provided Covid modelling advice to the Government, said coming days would be crucial.
“The next few days will reveal quite a lot — we’re in a crunch period,” Jones said. “We need to see how it tracks from here to Tuesday, which is the three-week mark.”
Jones said that for Auckland to exit level 4 on September 13 “a lot needs to go right in the next few days”.
He called on the Government to release more information about new clusters, so people could get a better handle on the size of new, emerging clusters — if there were any.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern struck an optimistic note at her 1pm media briefing yesterday, noting that
of the 49 new cases, just seven had been infectious in the community.
Ardern said the number of people infectious in the community had been “falling since lockdown”, showing the restrictions were working.
“Overall, the number of cases without exposure events with contacts already in isolation as contacts of existing cases has been increasing.
“This means our contact tracing is making a difference — it’s identifying contacts, getting them isolated and stopping the spread of the virus to others,” Ardern said.
But she warned Auckland would likely see further cases of transmission within households.
Director general of health Ashley Bloomfield had other good news, saying there was a 95 per cent probability the R value — which rates the virus’ ability to spread — was below one, indicating an outbreak not rising out of control, but slowly shrinking.
The Government’s handling of the managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) system came under intense scrutiny in Parliament after news that a Covid positive man had escaped a quarantine facility, potentially spending 12 hours in the community before he was arrested.
National’s Covid-19 spokesman Chris Bishop called for an urgent inquiry into why it took so long for the man to be apprehended and for ministers to be notified. He wanted to know “what can be done to make sure it doesn’t happen again”.
Covid-19 Minister Chris Hipkins said “preliminary information” was provided to Ardern before the 1pm briefing, but she chose not to disclose what she knew about the case.
Bishop and National Party leader Judith Collins launched a policy yesterday that they argue would improve the MIQ system.
They said MIQ should move to a “points based” system, a bit like the immigration system, so people with the greatest need to return would have a higher chance of getting one of the limited number of MIQ places.
People returning home for urgent medical care and family funerals, as well as workers in businesses with skill shortages, would have the highest “points”, people returning for a holiday would have lower points.
“Everyone is treated the same, and while that has superficial appeal it ultimately leads to unfair outcomes for many people,” Collins said.
“We believe people coming home to farewell dying family members or for urgent medical treatment should not be treated the same as people coming to New Zealand for a holiday.”
Act leader David Seymour was also selling potential fixes to MIQs — his idea is to allow private providers to operate their own MIQ facilities, alleviating the chronic undersupply of rooms.
“We need private licensed MIQ to expand capacity — with higher standards than the Government has.”