BRIGHTER hopes for Auckland
Experts reveal what must happen for the city to move down to level 3 next week
Aucklanders could move out of level 4 in a week if they keep to the current path. Te Pu¯naha Matatini modelling suggests the R value has dropped to 0.4, and while cases might still be popping up at the start of next week, infections in the community may have dropped to zero.
“We do see that in some simulations,” says Covid-19 modeller Professor Shaun Hendy.
“It’s possible that the Monday decision [by Cabinet] could be for Auckland to go to level 3.”
The biggest threat to prolonging level 4 is any transmission outside people’s bubbles.
The best indicators of that are the number of mystery cases, and cases that are infectious in the community.
The latter are the ones we know about who, for instance, have been going to the supermarket or an essential workplace.
These have been declining; there were 27 such cases a week ago, five on Sunday, and four on Monday.
The number of mystery cases suggest missing links in the infection chain who could also be about.
There were 58 such cases two Sundays ago. Yesterday there were 24 — 19 of them in the past fortnight, and 10 in the past week.
Some of them are likely to be linked eventually. The Middlemore Hospital patient is one of eight people with the virus in a household of 11, and director general of health Ashley Bloomfield is confident a link to the outbreak will be found.
Another factor is whether any of them are essential workers. An exposure event at an indoor, poorly-ventilated workplace for eight hours is clearly riskier than one at a supermarket for 20 minutes.
At last count there were only four workplaces where transmission is thought to have occurred, and none in the past week.
Bloomfield has said the number of cases doesn’t have to drop to zero for restrictions to be eased. Those already in isolation are not a concern.
But the number of cases infectious in the community will likely need to fall to zero or near-zero before Auckland can farewell level 4.
Near-zero allows for the odd mystery case where health officials are confident a link will be found.
A few days of such cases flatlining would provide more confidence because, as Professor Michael Baker explains, there’s a lag time, and today’s numbers reflect events from four or five days ago.
“You want to see a sustained period of no new cases in the community which are unexplained.”
This was essentially the path out of level 4 for the country south of Auckland. When Cabinet signalled a move to level 3, there had been several days without cases that weren’t already in isolation.
The cases that continued to pop up in Wellington were all known contacts and already isolating.
When Cabinet agreed to move non-Aucklanders to Delta level 2, there had been no signs of any cases infectious in the community for at least two weeks.
Some uncertainty remained around the 5000-plus contacts who were yet to be reached.
But that will be much less of a factor by Monday — when Cabinet will review alert levels — because the number of contacts has plateaued, and only one of the 1000-odd very close contacts remains elusive.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will be mindful of the danger of moving out of lockdown too quickly.
Level 3 might feel similar to 4, but it opens up a lot more chances for the virus to jump bubbles.
That’s because bubbles are bigger, allowing for caregivers, the workforce expands, and gatherings up to 10 are allowed to funerals and weddings.
Alert level decisions are also about more than the nature of new cases.
Other factors include wastewater testing results, and high community testing to give public health officials confidence that remaining cases are being found.
There’s a lot that can happen in the next week that could wrestle Auckland to more time in level 4.
Not all of it is in Aucklanders’ control. There might be undetected cases asymptomatic and unwittingly venturing out into the community.
But there is plenty that can be done — and Aucklanders have been doing it well.
If they sustain for a bit longer, the freedoms of level 3 and then Delta level 2 may not be too far off.