Boldness may be way to end war
Agap has emerged between Ukraine and its leading supporters over what a possible outcome to the war with Russia could look like. It comes as Kyiv and Western countries wait for signs of shifts, including possible escalation, from the Kremlin today as Russia marks Victory Day over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Russia is still focused on capturing and holding areas of land in Ukraine’s east and south.
United States CIA Director William Burns said yesterday Russian President Vladimir Putin “thinks he cannot afford to lose. He’s convinced . . . doubling down still will enable him to make progress”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says a Russian withdrawal to pre-invasion positions will be required for new peace talks. That’s at odds with recent statements from Western backers which pointed to more open-ended and wider goals.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has said Washington wants “to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine”. Britain’s Defence Secretary Liz Truss has said Russia would have to get out of Ukraine entirely, including Crimea.
At the weekend US intelligence leaks boasted the US had helped Ukraine target top officers and sink Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea. Burns said Ukraine had added on to American intelligence.
US President Joe Biden has authorised another US$150 million in military hardware for Ukraine, bringing the total package of US aid to US$3.8 billion. He also asked Congress to approve US$33b-plus in spending to keep things going until October.
If Putin thinks he “cannot afford to lose” then the US and others are providing that blowtorch of pressure with no obvious negotiated way out.
This could be the right approach: Provide Ukraine with the resources to engineer a clear defeat that means Russia has to withdraw. Boldness and risk-taking could make progress.
The more quickly Ukraine can gain an advantage, the faster economic fallout in the West could ease. A train carrying Ukrainian grain arrived in Austria as part of an effort to beat Russia’s blockade of Odesa on the Black Sea.
Yesterday Ukraine said Russian forces had been pushed back from Kharkiv, a major city near the Russian border. The fact Ukraine has thwarted a takeover of the country and is able to defend itself without direct Nato help is preferable to official Western combat troops intervening on the ground.
Former Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “The mistake we made in the past was to underestimate the ambitions of Vladimir Putin, to underestimate his brutality . . . We overestimated the strength of the Russian military.”
However, there’s a whiff of Western overconfidence and piling humiliations on a leader who needs to save face to survive could backfire. And how likely is it Putin would surrender?
The old rules of a military conflict needing a political endgame still apply.
This newspaper is subject to NZ Media Council procedures. A complaint must first be directed in writing, within one month of publication, to formalcomplaints@nzherald.co.nz.
If dissatisfied, the complaint may be sent to the Media Council, P O Box 10-879, The Terrace, Wellington 6143. Or use the online complaint form at www.mediacouncil.org.nz Include copies of the article and all correspondence with the publication.