What Australia and NZ teach each other
Tasman rivals share cost-of-living pain but election result puts differences into focus
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern might be flying to the US this week but the eyes of Wellington are fixed firmly in the other direction, as our political parties pour over the entrails of the Australian election.
Australia is often looked at as an incubator of a certain type of politics; it’s the home of international political operatives like Mark Textor and Lynton Crosby (“the Wizard of Oz”), who cast a long shadow over Anglophone politics, brushing up the images of Don Brash and John Key, and helping UK Conservatives on multiple election campaigns.
Crosby was even given a knighthood in the UK in 2015 — a rare feat for an Australian, after thenPrime Minister Malcolm Turnbull scrapped titular honours in Australia itself the same year (they’d only recently been brought back by previous Prime Minister Tony Abbott, but that other side of Australian politics — its serial instability — is for another time).
Our two major political parties both had senior operatives in Australia, observing the campaigns of their sister parties, as did the Greens.
As the dust settles (if dust ever settles in Australia) there appear to be two (or perhaps three) lessons to be drawn from New Zealand.
The first is a global trend: painful, out-of-control inflation, which has mortally wounded an incumbent government struggling to rein in prices while delivering economic support to households. This is a trend being picked up across all Five Eyes Anglophone democracies, where governments are all polling behind their challengers (this is slightly different in the US, which doesn’t use a Westminster system, although President Biden’s polling is unquestionably poor).
Viewed through this lens, the election is bad news for Labour, which has begun to fall behind National in most polls, and would be unable to form a government in one (Taxpayers’ Union-Curia).
Polling shows the political environments in both Australia and New Zealand are similar.
An Ipsos poll found concerns over the cost of living at another all-time high, with nearly half of all voters listing it as a top concern. This month’s Taxpayers’-Union Curia poll put the cost of living as the most important issue for voters, with 25.8 per cent of people saying it was a major voting issue (just 3.5 per cent answered that question with “Covid19”, down from more than 30 per cent in October).
But there’s a second way of reading Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s loss, which is that he led a government dogged by inaction on climate change and questions over probity and its attitude towards women. Wealthy inner-city electorates peeled away from the Liberal Party, falling into the column of “Teal” independents — Right of Centre candidates who promised serious action on climate change and to grapple with the government’s challenges around probity and sexism.
Read this way, the result doesn’t look so optimistic for National, a party which has had multiple genderinflected meltdowns since losing office in 2017 to the point where the word “National” seemed to be followed by the words “culture problem” as often as the word “party”.
There’s merit in reading the Australian election this way, but the differences are probably more striking than the similarities.
For starters, the attitudes of women voters appear to be starkly different on this side of the Tasman.
Far from abandoning National, women appear to be flocking to the party. According to the Taxpayers’Union Curia poll, National has increased its popularity among women this year from 28 per cent in November, to 35 per cent in May, just three points behind Labour.
That said, the Liberal collapse in cities possibly contains a lesson for conservative parties in New Zealand and around the world. Questions of social justice predominate this cultural moment. The conventional wisdom was that social justice issues tended to destroy the Left — Barack Obama once joked that these issues tended to whip Left-leaning politicians into a “circular firing squad” in which they argued themselves into ever more unelectable positions to appease their activist base.
New Zealand and Australia suggest this is no longer the case. The glut of knotty conscience votes put through the last Parliament — cannabis, euthanasia, abortion reform — galvanised the Left and tore National apart. Euthanasia and abortion in particular led to caucus spats that spilled out onto the floor of the House. History repeated itself this term, when the party imploded over the issue of whipping a vote on conversion therapy. That history, and the example of the Teals, is a warning for National to ensure its conservative and liberal wings are able to live with each other.
The politics of climate in Australia and New Zealand are incomparable. Elections in New Zealand are lost and won on the back of a single national electorate; the party vote is the only vote that counts. Australia is different. In a country where individual electorate contests matter, it’s almost impossible to cobble together a national platform that placates the concerns of people concerned about the effects of climate change on their livelihoods and people for whom their livelihood depends on worsening climate change.
New Zealand’s National Party is also starkly different to Morrison’s Coalition on climate politics. In 2018, former National leader Simon Bridges announced his climate change spokesman Todd Muller had a mandate from the party to negotiate the Zero Carbon Bill with Climate Change Minister James Shaw.
The announcement was not made in a leafy Teal-like seat but an agriculture trade fair, Field Days, a potent symbol that National was changing its position on climate change but not to the extent that it would sacrifice its rural base. Since then, National has committed to the Zero Carbon Act (with the proviso that it change the agricultural emissions target within 100 days of being elected), and committed to the first three emissions budgets, and committed to publishing a plan for how to reach those emissions budgets before the next election.
Luxon has even been making noises about the inevitability of agricultural emissions pricing, but the current policy is to match Labour and the Greens on emissions reduction and to publish a pre-election plan on how to do so.
Unlike Morrison, who appeared to abandon urban liberal seats to shore up marginal, rural and suburban support, MMP has allowed National to tack towards urban population centres at the expense of rural seats.
Last year, there was criticism that the party’s refreshed board had no farming voice on it, and was too weighted towards people who lived in central Auckland (this has since changed with the appointment of Graeme Harrison to the board). National realises that under MMP, a contest between urban and rural voters, urban voters win every time.
The party’s history means it still has credibility issues around climate change but it would be a stretch to compare those credibility issues to Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition, which nearly fractured over setting Australia’s 2030 targets. National might not match Labour on climate change, there’s no “nuclear-free moment” rhetoric on their side of the aisle, but it’s difficult to see their climate platform as sufficiently negligent for urban voters to vote for someone else.
There’s nothing like the word “Teal” to send New Zealand’s political world into conniptions of terrible punditry. For years, Right-leaning voters have yearned for a “Teal Deal” with the Greens, as a way of kneecapping Act or New Zealand First, without realising that the more than 100 Green delegates who must assent to any governing formation would sooner bury themselves in a mound of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser than agree to such an arrangement.
True, the only two electorates the Greens have ever won in New Zealand (Coromandel and Auckland Central) have been won from National, but that’s about where the party crossover ends.
In fact, the success of the Greens at peeling a seat from National at the 2020 election suggests this year’s Australian election might be evidence of Australian politics lagging behind New Zealand, rather than leading it. Chlo¨e Swarbrick’s victory in Nikki Kaye’s former seat of Auckland Central, against a strong Labour and National, can be read many, many ways — but one lesson is perhaps that Auckland Central voters were tired of a National Party dogged by poor behaviour, sexism and more concerned with culture wars than climate change.
The third lesson one could draw from Australia is the decline in support for the two major parties, with the Greens and Teal independents surging in support. New Zealand also leads Australia in this regard, because of our electoral system more than anything else.
We’re currently governed by what was, on election night, the most popular governing party in a quarter of a century, but for most of our recent history, just under 30 per cent of the vote has gone to minor parties. This is something Australia witnessed in this election, where support for the two major parties declined, despite Australia’s electoral system giving both a significant leg-up.
Votes bleeding away from the two major parties is something New Zealand is familiar with, much more than Australia. Perhaps that’s the real lesson of this election: that on issues of climate, culture and party, New Zealand politics has led Australia. Like the mighty pavlova, this politics might have originated here, before migrating across the ditch.
Politics is cyclical, not linear, but for the current cycle at least, it appears New Zealand has been the incubator of the new politics, rather than Australia.
Australia’s new prime minister was sworn in yesterday ahead of a Tokyo summit today with United States President Joe Biden — even while vote-counting continued to determine whether he will control a majority in a parliament that is demanding tougher action on climate change.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s centre-left Labor Party ousted predecessor Scott Morrison’s conservative Coalition at Saturday’s election. The Coalition had been in power under three prime ministers for nine years.
“I want to lead a government that has the same sentiment of optimism and hope that I think defines the Australian people,” Albanese said in his hometown of Sydney before flying to Canberra to be sworn in.
Albanese, who describes himself as the first ever candidate for the office of prime minister with a “nonAnglo Celtic name” and Malaysianborn Penny Wong, Australia’s first Foreign Minister to be born overseas, were sworn into office by GovernorGeneral David Hurley before the pair flew to Tokyo for a Quad security summit with Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Morrison’s decision to resign as prime minister during the early vote counting enabled Hurley to appoint his replacement without evidence that Albanese can control a majority of seats in parliament’s lower chamber where governments are formed.
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles was also sworn in and will act as prime minister while Albanese is in Japan.
Katy Gallagher and Jim Chalmers were sworn into economic ministries.
Labor appears assured of 75 seats, one short of the majority in the 151-seat House of Representatives needed to form an administration.
The conservative Coalition was on track for 58, independent lawmakers 12, and six seats were too close to call, the Australian Electoral Commission said.
Australia’s two major parties, Labor and the conservative Liberal Party, bled votes to independents and fringe parties in Saturday’s election continuing a trend of dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
Terri Butler, who would have been the new government’s environment minister, was replaced by Max Chandler-Mather, of the climatefocused Greens Party that now holds as least three seats in the house, two more than in the last parliament. Former New South Wales state
Premier Kristina Keneally’s bid to move from the Senate to the House in what was considered a safe Labor seat in Sydney was defeated by Vietnam-born independent candidate Dai Le, who became the first refugee ever elected to parliament.
Greens leader Adam Bandt supported a Labor minority government from 2010 until its election defeat in 2013 and was prepared to negotiate with Albanese again.
Albanese had been the government’s chief negotiator with its outside supporters in the House during those three years and was praised for his collegial approach.
“Liberal and Labor’s vote went backwards this election. Labor may get over the line with a majority and may not but their vote went backwards,” Bandt said.
“The Greens and independents said we need to take action on coal and gas which are the main causes of the climate crisis and people agree,’ Bandt added, referring to Australia’s major fossil fuel exports.
“It’s the end of the two-party system as we know it,” he said.
The conservative former government lost six traditionally safe seats to so-called teal independents, greener versions of the Liberal Party’s blue colour.
The teals want a more ambitious target than Labor’s promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent below the 2005 level by the end of the decade.
The previous government had stuck with the same commitment they made at the Paris Agreement in 2015: 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. The Greens’ 2030 target is 75 per cent.
This is about coming back to the values of the community Allegra Spender
Six usually safe Liberal seats. Six accomplished women running as independents. Six body blows for Scott Morrison’s government that could have been avoided.
New Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese got the top job, but the most striking feature of the election was the wave of victories for the so-called “teal independents” challenging sitting Liberal MPs across the country.
While Labor and the Greens picked up plenty of seats, this group of six dealt the most pain to the Liberals, ripping away chunks of its heartland.
And in an even bigger blow for the Liberal Party, the failure could have been avoided as these women were exactly the kind of politicians the Coalition should have embraced.
Dr Monique Ryan
Ryan was labelled “the giant-killer of this election” by ABC News anchors early on Sunday morning, with her on the cusp of beating Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong. Frydenberg — widely seen as a leadership contender — was the highest profile victim of the night, and his loss has important ramifications for the Liberal Party’s future. It leaves outgoing Defence Minister Peter Dutton as the clear favourite to take over from Morrison. Frydenberg officially conceded yesterday saying: “It's been an incredible privilege to have served . . . for the last 12 years”. Ryan, a pediatric neurologist, told the ABC that “independents are here to stay. We felt that the government wasn’t listening to us, and so we have changed the government. We have come together as a community and expressed what we want, and I think that this is going to be a permanent sort of a change, not just a protest against one thing.”
Allegra Spender
Spender, the daughter of former Liberal MP John Spender and fashion designer Carla Zampatti, took Wentworth from Liberal Dave Sharma. Wentworth was, until quite recently, a reliably safe Liberal seat, but that changed with the resignation of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. In the aftermath of his knifing it was claimed by an independent, Kerryn Phelps. Sharma subsequently won it back. Now the Liberals have lost it again. “You look at the values of this community. We are socially progressive, we are environmentally focused. They were not reflected in the parliament, and were not reflected in the Liberal Party, which has moved to the right. And this is about coming back to the values of the community, to be honest and actually represent them,” Spender said. She said she hoped the election results showed “you can’t ignore women anymore”.
Sophie Scamps
Scamps’ successful campaign against Liberal MP Jason Falinski in Mackellar, held by the party since 1977, was one of the more surprising wins for the contingent of independents. The former athlete and GP campaigned on climate change, integrity and health. She said her victory proved voters wanted to be “genu
inely represented” in parliament. “What a night! We did it Mackellar! We made history together, and now it’s time to start creating a better future together,” she told her supporters.
Zoe Daniel
The former ABC journalist, knocked off assistant minister Tim Wilson in Goldstein after a bitter campaign that included human excrement being smeared on signs. “What we have achieved here is extraordinary. Safe Liberal seat, two-term incumbent,” Daniel told her celebrating supporters. Goldstein had never been won by anyone other than a Liberal candidate. Wilson blamed his troubles on an “unholy alliance” between GetUp!, the Labor Party and the Greens, among others.
Kylea Tink
Tink took North Sydney from another moderate Liberal MP, Trent Zimmerman, marking the first time the Liberals haven’t held the seat since 1996. Finance Minister Simon
Birmingham said Zimmerman was the victim of a “contagion effect” and was being “punished” for the views of other candidates. He was quite obviously alluding to Katherine Deves, the controversial Liberal candidate in neighbouring Warringah, whose extreme views on transgender people plagued her colleagues throughout much of the campaign.
Kate Chaney
Chaney claimed the Western Australia seat of Curtin, once held by Julie Bishop, unseating conservative MP Celia Hammond. Curtin was previously held by an independent, Allan Rocher, for just one term between 1995 and 1998. Otherwise it had been Liberal since 1949. Chaney is an independent from a Liberal family. Her grandfather, Fred Chaney, was a minister in the Menzies government and her uncle was a senator. Her campaign included A$350,000 from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 organisation.