Amid war, there’s row over endgame
Ukraine’s backers appear split over whether a deal should come sooner or later as Donbas fighting continues
It is the greatest triumph of an underdog since David slew Goliath — Ukraine’s offensives in Kyiv and Kharkiv have shown Russia to be a paper tiger. The collapse of Vladimir Putin’s Army is inevitable and Ukraine can win the war if only the Western alliance holds its nerve.
Or is that nothing but a fantasy, out of touch with the cold realities of the balance of power, Russia’s nuclear status and its battlefield successes on the southern front? Isn’t the inevitable outcome of the war a grotty compromise that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty but cedes Russia some territory? And if so, shouldn’t the West push Kyiv to accept that reality before more lives are lost?
That was the argument laid out in an editorial in the New York Times — sparking uproar in Kyiv amid growing fears about the resolve of elites in both the United States and Europe to see the conflict through.
The piece argued that Russia is too strong for Ukraine to defeat decisively on the battlefield and that US President Joe Biden should make this clear to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sooner rather than later. Despite Ukraine’s stunning successes around Kyiv and Kharkiv, “a decisive military victory for Ukraine over Russia, in which Ukraine regains all the territory Russia has seized since 2014, is not a realistic goal”.
Ultimately “it will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand”, the newspaper added.
The arguments laid out reflect a debate that raged in Washington in the run-up to war. Then, most foreign policy experts assumed Ukraine was certain to lose even with Western military assistance. Biden now appears to have thrown his weight behind the previously unthinkable goal of a Ukrainian victory — delivering vast financial assistance and increasingly powerful weaponry.
But the New York Times article shows elements of the American establishment are still not convinced. And they are not alone. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy hinted, with some irritation, that Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, had asked him to give up land in exchange for peace.
Mario Draghi, the Italian Prime
Minister, and Olof Sholz, the Chancellor of Germany, have also recently talked of seeking a “ceasefire”.
Yesterday Polish President Andrzej Duda travelled to Kyiv to support Ukraine’s goal of European Union membership. Duda became the first foreign leader to address Ukraine’s Parliament since Russia invaded. He thanked MPs for the honour of speaking in a place where “the heart of a free, independent and democratic Ukraine beats”.
His visit came as Russian and Ukrainian forces battled in the Donbas along a 551km wedge of the country’s eastern industrial heartland. The Russian military launched airstrikes and missile attacks in the region, seeking to expand the territory Moscow-backed separatists have held since 2014.
Zelenskyy has conceded that the war will eventually end with talks — but says he wants Russians out of Ukraine first and has ruled out territorial concessions. Interestingly, it is not only Ukrainians appalled by the idea of compromise. One Russian commentator warned that the suggested settlement would merely allow the West and Ukraine to rearm for another war later on. There can be no stopping now, he urged — the war must continue.
Ukraine fears exactly that and is willing to fight on as Russia would most likely use a ceasefire to reset its forces. Many also believe there is no reason to stop fighting when they have the upper hand. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence has asserted that the country will retake its lost territories.
Perhaps the war will end in some kind of compromise. But there is much more fighting to be done before either side will accept one.
Forcing a diplomatic solution that saves lives would therefore be preferable to risking a US military confrontation with Russia — even if it meant pushing the Ukrainians to accept unpalatable concessions.