Hamilton West byelection nears
National leader says voters don’t know it’s even happening
Hamilton West residents have less than a week to choose their next representative in Parliament but many still don’t know they even have the opportunity.
That’s according to National leader Christopher Luxon, who was in Hamilton West last week campaigning on behalf of his party’s candidate Tama Potaka, an iwi chief executive vying to become New Zealand’s newest MP with voting closing at 7pm on Saturday.
It comes as Luxon continues to stick to National’s long-held messaging it is the underdog to Labour in the fight for Hamilton West, despite the electorate being considered a bellwether seat — one that often aligns with the general election — and recent polls indicating the country’s two major parties are neck and neck.
Advance voting for the byelection began on Monday, November 28, and in data published by the Electoral Commission, just 2843 people voted in the first four days.
That was significantly lower than the 3511 Tauranga residents who had voted within four days for their byelection earlier this year, won by National’s Sam Uffindell.
That could change once votes cast this weekend were counted — Electoral Commission data from Tauranga’s byelection showed voting on weekends was understandably much stronger than on weekdays.
However, Luxon believed holding a byelection two weeks from Christmas meant it wouldn’t be top of mind for people.
“It’s a very difficult time to be doing a byelection, December 10, when you’re going to the end-of-year run-up and also lead into Christmas,” he told the Herald.
“People’s heads are in a different place, many actually aren’t aware there’s even a byelection going on, so that’s a real challenge for all parties to get the message out.”
Potaka was one of 12 candidates campaigning to be Hamilton West’s next MP.
His primary competition came in the form of Labour’s candidate Georgie Dansey, Act MP Dr James McDowall and former Hamilton West MP Dr Gaurav Sharma.
The byelection was triggered after Sharma, who won the seat in 2020, resigned from Parliament following a nasty split from the Labour Party, where he was expelled from the caucus and as a party member for bringing Labour into disrepute by repeatedly airing claims senior Labour personnel had bullied him — claims Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern refuted.
Sharma won the electorate by more than 6000 votes, wresting the seat from National’s Tim Macindoe who had been the MP since 2008.
It was on this basis Luxon and the National Party argued Potaka was the “underdog” in Hamilton West, instead rating Dansey’s chances, saying it wouldn’t be easy as the Government had a “massive” majority there.
Sharma’s victory was one of many for Labour in a general election that swung well to the left in the midst of a Covid-19 pandemic, giving Labour the ability to govern alone this term — a context not acknowledged in National’s comments.
Last month, the Herald reported Labour’s pollster Talbot Mills had National in the lead on 35 per cent, no change from last month’s poll. Labour was down one point to 34 per cent.
Ardern has repeatedly played down Labour’s chances as she believed Sharma’s ugly exit from the party will prejudice voters against Dansey.