All aboard the kiwi roller coaster
Global kiwifruit marketer Zespri has slightly lifted part of its earnings forecast for the country’s battling green fruit growers but warns historic low volumes will force down per hectare returns for most varieties this season.
It had no good news for growers of the bestseller SunGold, with their per-tray forecast range falling slightly on the March outlook and their per-hectare forecast diving.
The company has just updated its orchard gate returns forecasts on its March guidance, noting an easing in some of the challenges the export sector has faced recently, including improved fruit quality, strong early season pricing and reduced freight costs.
But inflation is still an issue, including in the postharvest sector, chairman Bruce Cameron said.
Mt Maunganui-based Zespri has the statutory right to export all New Zealand-grown kiwifruit — except to Australia. Global sales revenue last season was $4.03 billion, with $2.47b returned to New Zealand growers. An industry fruit quality problem last export season because of labour shortages and severe weather, and rising orchard costs, made for a disappointing 2021-2022 year, particularly for green fruit grower returns. Industry commentators say some green growers are financially struggling.
Cameron said this season’s lower fruit yields, the result of quality issues, poor pollination and weather, were expected to result in forecast-per-hectare returns remaining “subdued, particularly for green growers given the historically low volume of green fruit we have in 2023-2024”.
However the marketer has lifted the lower end of its green fruit per tray forecast from its March outlook, from $6.50 a tray to $7.25.
The upper end of the range remains at $8.50 a tray.
But the per-hectare return forecast range for green fruit fell, from between $52,000 and $68,000 to $50,000-$60,000.
Per-tray forecast returns for SunGold growers took a 50c hit to the upper level of the previous forecast range, with the latest forecast at $10.50-$12 per tray.
Per hectare, gold fruit forecast returns slumped from $124,000-$148,000 in March to a new $116,000-$133,000 range.
Things looked up for the comparatively small number of growers of RubyRed fruit, now in its second year as a commercial crop.
Their per-tray forecast range lifted from $17-$20 in March to $20.50-$22.50. Their latest per-hectare forecast rose to $32,000-$35,000 from $27,000-$31,000.
Cameron said Zespri had approved limited commercial trials of a new red cultivar, expected to start this winter.
There had been strong demand in Asia Pacific markets for RubyRed since its commercialisation in late 2019, he said. The go-ahead for trials on another red variety was in line with Zespri’s effort to extend its supply of red fruit throughout the season.
“With more orchards reaching maturity, this year Zespri RubyRed supply volumes increased to 330,000 trays and we expect to supply around 6.9 million trays of Zespri RubyRed by 2027-2028.”
The pre-commercialisation process usually took around five years but Zespri hoped that because of the knowledge gained developing and commercialising RubyRed it may be able to move through evaluation more quickly using a limited number of orchards for the trial, Cameron said.
The 2023 Zespri kiwifruit harvest is over, with the crop now being shipped overseas.
The grower update said it had been a challenging season with a reduced crop of fewer than 140m trays. On average each tray had around 30 kiwi.