Shrinking health wait times likely to cost $723m
The Opposition is warning of healthcare funding challenges ahead, after modelling revealed the significant price tag of reducing wait lists in New Zealand’s health system.
Documents released under the Official Information Act show health officials modelled that meeting proposed planned care targets would cost $723 million over two years.
That figure comes from a briefing document to Health Minister Shane Reti, which gave advice around proposed targets to cut down the time people spent waiting for first specialist appointments and treatment.
Health New Zealand Te Whatu Ora said the options costed did not end up being the Government’s planned care targets.
Instead, in March Reti announced five targets for the health system — which included 95 per cent of patients waiting less than four months for a first specialist appointment, and 95 per cent waiting less than four months for elective treatment, by 2030.
But Labour’s health spokeswoman, Ayesha Verrall, said the size of the figure modelled highlights the challenge the Government faces in turning around surgical wait lists.
She said the price tag shows that the health system would struggle to pay for work of this scale, without significant investment.
“It cannot be done within the health existing funding without compromising other parts of the health system, like nurses’ and doctors’ wages,” Verrall said.
She said if the Government did not provide significant funding in this area, it would be the first signal that they were not serious about bringing down surgery wait times. The briefing, Final Advice on Planned Care Targets, was provided to Reti in February, advising on the achievability, risks and costs of three proposed planned care targets.
The first was that no patient wait longer than 15 months for a First Specialist Assessment (FSA) — which the minister expected to be met by June 2025.
The second target, that no patient wait longer than 12 months for treatment, was also expected to be met by June 2025.
Officials said a third target — a one-month reduction in maximum wait times applied each year — would result in no patient waiting longer than 13 months for an FSA, or 10 months for treatment by June 2027.
The minister was warned: “Health NZ Te Whatu Ora will require additional funding to meet your proposed targets.”
“The total modelled cost for increased planned care delivery between 2024/25 and 2026/27 is $723m if fully funded at national prices.”
Health New Zealand director of programmes Duncan Bliss said the three targets costed were different from the 2030 targets, announced by Reti in March.
“We are undertaking more detailed modelling of the work required to deliver on the Government’s Health Targets,” he said.
Bliss said $723m was based on a formula that multiplied cost of a first specialist appointment, and of a treatment, by the volume required to reach the target option specified.
Health New Zealand also has a goal to have all patients who have been waiting longer than 365 days, including orthopaedic patients, treated or with a treatment plan in place by the end of June 2024.
Bliss said there were about 2000 people waiting longer than a year for treatment, including orthopaedic patients, down from nearly 5500 people a year ago.
“There has been significant focus on, and improvement to, reducing this wait list,” he said.
Reti said “while we can’t talk about what will be in the upcoming Budget, health targets are intended to focus the health system’s efforts and resources on areas of critical concerns.”
If $723m was put towards meeting planned health targets in the Budget, Verrall said it would “consume a lot of what’s available for other new spending initiatives overall”.