China’s military moves into South China Sea
Training exercises likely to stoke tensions with US
Chairman Xi Jinping has lost patience. His nation’s economy is suffering. Covid-19 has strained the seams of his credibility. He needs a win. So he’s doing what strongmen do best — upping the military ante.
Both of Beijing’s new aircraft carriers are deploying together for the first time. They’ve been warming up in the secure Yellow Sea. Soon, they’ll be headed south.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Liaoning and Shandong are engaged in combat readiness training in the tightly controlled Bohai Bay. It’s just the second week of an intensive 11-week simulated conflict that will eventually reach deep into the South China Sea.
It’s just one of a barrage of military and diplomatic moves — extending from Japan across Asia to the mountain borders with India — that are escalating international tensions.
As a result, “the risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next 18 months”, warns a new report from the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations.
How the US responds has severe implications for the status of its alliance with Australia.
Sabre rattling
Beijing is planning a large invasion exercise near Hainan Province in August. Kyodo News in Japan reports this will be a simulated seizure of defended islands. But the planned course of the Chinese aircraft carriers has raised eyebrows.
“An aircraft carrier strike group will pass through the Pratas Islands on its way to the exercise site to the southeast of Taiwan in the Philippine Sea,” a Japanese military insider reportedly said.
The Pratas is a South China Sea group of atolls controlled by Taiwan. Sending major warships through their waters would be significant intimidation by Beijing.
The territorial “bubble” offered by the Taiwanese islands has also been exploited by the US in recent weeks, with 13 flights by intelligencegathering aircraft over the area to monitor nearby Chinese activity.
But international analysts suggest Beijing’s move is not the opening move of any invasion.
The islands, they say, are mostly irrelevant after the controversial construction of eight artificial island fortresses.
“There are just 200 Taiwanese troops stationed on the Pratas, so it doesn’t make sense for the PLA to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group to take such a small island,” the Japanese defence official said.
A Taiwanese military analyst agreed, telling the South China Morning Post that the exercise was instead part of an overall scheme to militarise the East and South China Sea region.
“A landing drill could be seen as preparation for an attack on Taiwan, but it is more to do with the PLA building up its combat systems for any possible conflict in the South China Sea,” Chi Le-yi said.
But Taiwan’s Chief of Joint Operations, Major General Lin Wen-huang, felt compelled to reassure his nation that there were plans in place in case of a Chinese attack.
Gunboat diplomacy Domestically, China’s economy is struggling with the fallout of Covid19 and Xi must maintain his grip on the Communist Party to stay in power.
“Xi could find it necessary to demonstrate strength while Beijing deals with internal fallout from the pandemic,” the CFR report reads.
Meanwhile, his “wolf warrior” diplomacy — while winning over a home audience — has served only to alienate Beijing further internationally.
“The continued downward spiral in US-China relations could also encourage Xi to adopt a now-or-never approach to the South China Sea,” the CFR states.
“Changes to China’s domestic situation or the international environment could create incentives for China’s leadership to adopt a more provocative strategy in the South China Sea that would increase the risk of military confrontation.
“Moreover, with expectations that the first stage of China’s military modernisation efforts will be completed in 2020, Xi could become more confident that China would succeed in pressing its claims militarily, especially if the United States is distracted internally with managing the coronavirus pandemic or its aftermath.”
Worst case scenario
High among anticipated threats to regional stability is the prospect of Beijing arbitrarily declaring the Spratly Islands as territorial waters.
It could then claim a 370km exclusive economic zone around them — effectively seizing control of the whole South China Sea.
How could the US respond? It could maintain its presence — at risk of open conflict. Or it could withdraw — with severe diplomatic fallout.
“China’s EEZ claims could force the United States to choose between continuing operations, thereby risking direct confrontation with China, or reducing them, undermining its alliance commitments,” the CFR report states.
The think-tank argues only an increased military presence in the South China Sea by Australia, France, and the United Kingdom — with support from Southeast Asian countries — can undermine Chairman Xi’s confidence.
“The US should increase military operations with like-minded countries, such as Australia, India, Japan and Singapore, to compensate for its limited resources in the area. The US navy and others should sail through disputed waters more frequently and routinise FONOPs [Freedom of Navigation Operations]. This move would signal to China the US and its partners do not respect China’s excessive territorial claims.”