Trouble with an Aust-NZ bubble

It’s popular to call for the inevitable because one day that call will be proven prescient. Thus cries for the transtasman bubble to be put in place pronto will some day come to be and proponents can declare, “this should have happened ages ago, when I was calling for it”.

The drums were sounding for a breakthrough on Monday, when the Prime Minister’s office advised an announcement on travel links with Australia would be made post Cabinet. Jacinda Ardern then declared the Government would announce the commencement date of the travel bubble on April 6. An announcement about an announcement, then.

So what’s the hold-up? One factor could be the vaccination rollout, which has been slow both here and in Australia by world standards. This is partially understandable, given the limited supply of medical staff to apply the jabs; that no one can afford to have crowds mingling at vaccination facilities; and there being no real urgency with rampant outbreaks as is happening overseas.

Another factor may be epidemiologist advice. Otago University expert Michael Baker warns that once Australian travellers did not need to go into managed isolation, 40 per cent of MIQ places would then be available to travellers from “red zone” countries with high case numbers, increasing the risk of border failures and outbreaks. That said, Baker believes it is the right time to re-open the border to Australians, because the country can have a lot more confidence in how we manage Covid-19 with public health measures. Another plus is that vaccines for border workers are being rolled out in both countries.

One potential hurdle is New Zealand’s relationship with Australia, in part due to the latter’s policy of exporting any foreigner (read Kiwi) who fails a good character test. Ardern said pressure from Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to open the bubble did “not at all” play into this week’s decision to defer a decision. Work had been under way for “some time”, which may suggest frayed Anzac relations could be protracting discussions. One stated sticking point is Ardern wanting Australia to have tighter rules around restricting travel from a “Covid hotspot” because of the risk of a Covid-carrier travelling through a Covid-free state and on to New Zealand.

This, and other factors known only to those trying to negotiate, explains why our pipedreams of a bubble remain stranded for the time being.