Pentagon: China rapidly expanding its nuclear force

China is expanding its nuclear force and is on pace to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has by 2035, rapidly closing its gap with the United States, the Pentagon said in a report released yesterday.

The report builds on the military’s warning last year that China is expanding its nuclear force much faster than US officials predicted, highlighting a broad and accelerating buildup of military muscle designed to enable Beijing to match or surpass US global power by mid-century.

Last year, the Pentagon said the number of Chinese nuclear warheads could increase to 700 within six years and may top 1000 by 2030. The new report says China has about 400 nuclear warheads, and that number could grow to 1500 by 2035.

The United States, by comparison, has 3750 active nuclear warheads.

Beijing’s growing arsenal is creating uncertainty for the US as it navigates how to deter two nuclear powers, Russia and China, simultaneously, the Pentagon said in its recent nuclear posture review. And China’s buildup also creates uncertainty about its intentions, said Bonny Lin, director of the China power project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“Will the actual increase in capability start impacting how Chinese experts think about the use of nuclear weapons?” such as whether it would change Beijing’s no “first use” policy, Lin asked. “That’s the uncertainty. We can’t assume that if they have more capabilities, that their policy is going to remain the same.”

The report looks at China’s activities in 2021 and therefore does not assess what impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have had on China’s militarisation priorities or strategy, or to what extent the invasion has weakened or strengthened China’s relationship with Russia, said a senior defence official.

While China has not provided Russia with weapons in the current conflict, its amplification of Russian disinformation and its continued support for joint military exercises with Russia is something the US is monitoring closely, the official said.

China is also closely watching how the international community reacts to Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, said John Erath, senior policy director for the Centre for Arms Control and NonProliferation.

“If Russia is able to gain its objectives by means of nuclear threats, China will derive lessons from that and could be potentially making these kinds of threats against Taiwan or other neighbouring countries in connection with China’s territorial ambitions,” Erath said. —