US sees ‘reduced tempo’ in war as Ukraine prepares for counterattack
The head of US intelligence says fighting in Russia’s war in Ukraine is running at a “reduced tempo” and suggests Ukrainian forces could have brighter prospects in coming months.
Avril Haines alluded to past allegations by some that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisers could be shielding him from bad news — for Russia — about war developments, and said he “is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces in Russia”.
“But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture of at this stage of just how challenged they are.”
Haines said her team was “seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict” and looking ahead expected both sides would look to refit, resupply, and reconstitute for a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring.
“But we actually have a fair amount of scepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that,” she said. “And I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that time frame.”
The British Ministry of Defence, in its latest intelligence estimate, yesterday pointed to new signs from an independent Russian media outlet that public support in Russia for the war was “falling significantly”.
Meduza said it obtained a recent confidential opinion survey conducted by the Federal Protection Service, which is in charge of guarding the Kremlin and providing security to top government officials.
The survey, commissioned by the Kremlin, found 55 per cent of respondents backed peace talks with Ukraine while 25 per cent wanted the war to go on.
Levada Centre, Russia’s top independent pollster, found in a similar poll carried out in November that 53 per cent of respondents supported peace talks, 41 per cent spoke in favour of continuing the fight, and 6 per cent were undecided.
The British Defence Ministry noted “despite the Russian authorities’ efforts to enforce pervasive control of the information environment, the conflict has become increasingly tangible for many Russians” since Putin in September ordered a “partial mobilisation” of reservists to bolster his forces in Ukraine.
“With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield successes in the next several months, maintaining even tacit approval of the war among the population is likely to be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin,” the British ministry said.
In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lashed out at Western efforts to crimp Russia’s crucial oil industry, a key source of funds for Putin’s war machine, saying their US$60-a-barrel price cap on imports of most Russian oil was insufficient.
“It is not a serious decision to set such a limit for Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of the terrorist state,” Zelenskyy said, referring to Russia. He said the US$60a-barrel level would still allow Russia to bring in US$100 billion ($156b) in revenues a year.
Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the US and the 27-nation European Union agreed Saturday to cap what they would pay for Russian oil at US$60 a barrel.
The limit is set to take effect today. Russian authorities have rejected the price cap and threatened to stop supplying nations that endorsed it.
“We will sell oil and oil products to those countries, which will work with us on market conditions, even if we have to somewhat cut production,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said yesterday.