Interest in being an electric car driver grows
Seamus Boyer
AN ELECTRIC car revolution may be just around the bend, according to Victoria University doctoral student Doug Clover. He has released preliminary findings from a nationwide survey on the potential demand for electric cars. It shows that, if made widely available, electric vehicles would be snapped up in large numbers, with 43-58 per cent of the country’s light passenger fleet electric by 2030.
Furthermore, if second-hand electric vehicles from Japan became available – which Mr Clover says is likely – the uptake would be even higher.
‘‘It’s pretty clear that if they’re made available and people can choose them just like any other car, then they will be bought in reasonable numbers,’’ he says. ‘‘And in significant enough numbers to make a real difference to the amount of greenhouse gases our vehicles generate.’’
Over the next 18 years, annual emissions from light vehicles are projected to increase by 22 per cent ‘‘under business-as-usual conditions’’, he says.
However, electric cars could actually reduce emissions by 20-34 per cent, depending on a number of promotional measures such as the introduction of public car-charging facilities.
Mr Clover, who has a masters degree in resource management, has long been interested in sustainable energy and transport solutions. His 20-year career has included stints at various government departments and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.
For his survey he sent out more than 3000 questionnaires, receiving 283 ‘‘legitimate’’ responses.
‘‘That’s not actually as bad as it sounds,’’ he says, explaining that respondents had to be prospective car buyers looking to purchase within the next five years. ‘‘And it’s pretty difficult for people to even think about that in the middle of a recession.’’
Of the respondents, those most likely to buy an electric car based their decision on financial and environment motives.
‘‘People who
are
more
concerned about rising oil prices are more likely to buy an electric vehicle. And likewise for those who believed there was a real need to reduce greenhouse emissions.’’
Electric cars use lithium ion batteries and are usually charged at a 15-amp socket, modified by an electrician from the standard 10-amp socket for about $100.
The Mitsubishi I-MIEV all-electric ve- hicle, currently being trialled by Wellington City Council, takes about 71⁄ hours to charge and has a range of 155 kilometres.
Plug-in hybrids are similar to the all- electric models, but become regular petrol-powered vehicles if and when their batteries run out.
But at present it is difficult even to find electric cars in New Zealand.
‘‘Our crucial problem is that you have to order them from custom manufacturers in Australia, who convert petrol cars to electric. But they are pretty expensive because of the small economy of scale.’’
His modelling indicates a preference for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and small electric vehicles for city use.
There is much less demand for family-sized electric vehicles, especially those trying to match the driving range of conventional vehicles by using large batteries.
That is because the bigger the battery the higher the price, with batteries currently having to be replaced every eight years or 160,000km.
‘‘The price of the battery, I think, is the real game-breaker.
‘‘If the price of the battery comes down – and it has been dropping – then it would certainly have a big impact.’’
Mr Clover will present his findings to the Energy Management Association of New Zealand conference in Christchurch later this month.