Will Santa bring sun for Christmas?

THE pressure is on to predict the weather on Christmas Day, and forecasters seem torn as to whether Wellington will see any sunshine.

Two of the three forecasting agencies are picking a dry day for the capital, but MetService is forecasting a few showers.

Meteorologist John Law said MetService’s forecasts saw thicker cloud, capable of producing an isolated shower or two in the afternoon or evening, building on December 25.

‘‘It’s more up towards the Hutt Valley than anything else and up towards the ranges ... A nice Christmas morning, and then a bit more cloud will bubble up. But really not a bad-looking day.’’

But National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research forecaster Chris Brandolino said that, while there might be a few clouds obscuring the sunshine, Christmas Day should stay dry in Wellington.

‘‘There is a threat for some patchy showers about Manawatu and Whanganui over Christmas and the West Coast of the South Island on Boxing Day, but sun and some cloud will dominate, with warm temperatures all round.’’

Further north, Wairarapa and Hawke’s Bay look to be in for a scorcher, with lots of sun and warm temperatures.

Sunshine and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures of up to 23 degrees Celsius in Wellington are expected today, and it could reach 28C in Masterton tomorrow, according to MetService.

This sun and warmth comes courtesy of a high-pressure system, which is likely to be centred over the Chatham Islands by Christmas Day.

New Year’s Eve appears to be a similar story. A cold front arriving on Monday should bring rain to the country in the last days of the year, with a high to follow, WeatherWatch forecaster Philip Duncan said. ‘‘The rain has a good opportunity to leave New Zealand – about a 48-hour window – before 6pm December 31.’’

But Duncan warned forecasts would remain uncertain for a few days yet as to whether people would see in the New Year under rain or shine.

He said the country should enter a pattern of drier weather as summer developed.