Ratings formula keeps tabs on the number tens

Steve Hansen has numerical help available to solve the first fiveeighth equation ahead of the 2015 World Cup. Ben Strang reports.

THERE is a four-way battle brewing for the All Blacks’ No 10 jersey in World Cup year: Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade and Daniel Carter are vying for the playmaker’s jersey in England in September and October next year.

The final call will come down to coach Steve Hansen but a new tool may help with that decision.

Introducing 1st5R, a formula which rates a first five-eighth’s performance. It factors in tackling, goal-kicking and metres gained per run, as well as tries scored or assisted, linebreaks made or assisted, and turnovers coughed up per possession.

The formula was created earlier this month to rate each of New Zealand’s potential World Cup first-fives next year.

I laid down the challenge to a much smarter friend, Stephen Ryan, to come up with a formula.

Using the skills which earned him a degree in science, majoring in physics, and his love of rugby, Ryan came up with an initial formula within days.

Ryan said the formula was a tweaked, rugby-fied version of American football’s passer rating.

The ratings are on a 0-100 scale, with 0 being the worst game ever played and 100 being the perfect performance. An average first-five performance works out at 45 on the 1st5R scale.

After a few tweaks of the formula, helping it to roughly match up to some of the player ratings by Fairfax Media rugby writers, we got to work rating every first-five performance from the 2014 Super Rugby season.

‘‘Anything under 30 is a bad game,’’ Ryan said. ‘‘Anything from 60 and over, you’re starting to see a really good game.

‘‘Seventy and over and you’re having a stunner. Anything over 80 and you’re having a once-in-aseason performance.

‘‘Over 90, it’s a once in a lifetime performance almost.’’

Based on 2014 Super Rugby, Slade is the clear winner in the battle for the 10 jersey.

He averaged a 51.72 1st5R throughout the season, ahead of Barrett (47.06) and an injuryaffected Cruden (43.56).

Carter did not play enough to get an accurate rating, though he did score a 52.49 in his limited playing time. The key reason Slade and Carter ranked higher than Cruden and Barrett in 1st5R is their goal- kicking. Cruden (71.4 per cent) and Barrett (75.79 per

Stephen Ryan cent) had several poor performances from the tee, bringing down their total 1st5R, while Slade’s consistent efforts (81 per cent) meant he was not penalised for poor kicking as often. Compared with the 2013 Super Rugby season, only Slade showed improvement in 2014, up from 50.66 1st5R, compared with Carter (54.32), Cruden (51.72), and Barrett (48.31). Slade’s stellar season continued with the All Blacks through to the final test of the year against Wales.

Barrett started the match but the All Blacks were behind when Slade came on in the 55th minute.

With Barrett moved to fullback, Slade orchestrated a late destruction of the Welsh.

He finished with a 57.99 1st5R in 25 minutes, with Barrett finishing on 51.92.

Take away the two tries Barrett scored at fullback from his stat line and he scored only 38.06.

Ryan said the formula did not reward flashy players, it simply rewarded players who got the job done. ‘‘It doesn’t give you points for style. You get points for substance,’’ Ryan said. ‘‘Rugby is about pressure. ‘‘1st5R rewards players who apply pressure on their opposition and relieve it when [the pressure is] on their team.

‘‘It also punishes those who put their own team under pressure.’’

Those few first-fives who don’t take place kicks are also penalised but it did not stop some from registering high scores in Super Rugby. Brumbies first-five Matt Toomua scored the highest score of the season, a staggering 92.66 1st5R in a 47-25 win over the Force on July 11.

South Africa’s Marnitz Boshoff had the worst, a 15.17 for the Lions. Wallabies first-five Bernard Foley had the highest average 1st5R during the 2014 Super Rugby season at 54.50, ahead of Toomua on 51.10.

We also tested the formula on the greatest first-five performance in living memory, Carter’s 33-point haul against the British and Irish Lions in 2005.

Carter scored a 98.79 1st5R in that match and only missed a perfect 100 because he missed one of his 10 kicks at goal.

We believe 1st5R will show who has been the best first-five at the end of next year but admit there is one aspect of the game it does not take into account.

Kicking out of the hand is a vital part of a No 10’s game but with personal kicking statistics hard to come by, they cannot be added to the formula.

When these kicking statistics were added, Ryan said, 1st5R would be the perfect formula.

‘‘At the moment the formula doesn’t do a player like Frans Steyn justice, because his game is based on kicking,’’ Ryan said.

‘‘But the formula works very well for players like the ones we have in New Zealand and Australia.’’

It is early days in the race for the No 10 jersey at the World Cup but, based on 1st5R, Slade is leading the race.