Behind the scenes game on for Saudi throne
THE declining health of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has triggered a power struggle as factions vie for control of the world’s largest oil exporter amid crises at home and abroad.
The future of the monarchy is at stake as it approaches a historic and potentially unsettling transition, with power passing to a younger generation.
The 90-year-old king, sent to hospital with pneumonia two weeks ago, has tried to secure his dynasty, placing his sons in key positions of power.
As hoax reports of his death appear daily on social media, however, rival clans have designs on the throne and all sides are scrambling to secure their share of the staggering oil wealth.
‘‘Everyone is waiting. The immediate succession is secure but beyond that, things are unclear. Behind the scenes, people are fighting like crazy to position themselves,’’ one government adviser said.
These are troubled times for Saudi Arabia. The country is flexing its muscle on global oil markets but relations with the United States, its main ally, have frayed. Riyadh has watched with alarm at the thaw in relations between Washington and its archnemesis, Iran. As Islamic State militants probe along the northern border, home-grown jihadists launch attacks inside the country. Spiralling unemployment and calls for reform among a young, disenfranchised population pose the greatest challenge to the House of Saud.
The first phase of the succession is secure. Abdullah’s halfbrother, Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, 79, has steadily assumed more duties as the king’s health has deteriorated.
A former disciplinary enforcer within the family, dishing out punishments behind closed doors to dissolute princes who fell off the wagon, Salman will continue Abdullah’s slow but steady reform programme.
Salman’s health is also failing, however. The heir is suffering from dementia, though reports of its severity vary. If he dies, or is incapacitated, before a path to the younger generation is defined, the succession could be thrown into flux. Since 1953, the throne has passed between the sons of Ab- dulaziz ibn Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. That line is almost expired and the transition to the next generation of princes is fast approaching.
The deputy crown prince is Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, at 69, the youngest of Ibn Saud’s eligible sons. Though popular, the former spy chief is not viewed by purists as a true heir. His mother was a Yemeni concubine who never formally married his father.
His appointment by the king two years ago provoked rumours of a deal to parachute Abdullah’s second son, Miteb, 62, on to the throne, engineering the pivot to the next generation with Abdullah’s line at its head.
Salman’s family, the powerful Sudairi clan, have other ideas. With Abdullah gone, they will re- assume control of the succession.
Muhammad bin Nayef, 55, the powerful interior minister and counter-terrorism chief, is the strongest Sudairi contender.
Nephew to Salman, he was trained by the FBI and Scotland Yard and is well respected in Western capitals after years of joint operations against al Qaeda.
The al-Sauds are archpragmatists, dedicated to their own survival. Despite jostling, there will be no public succession crisis in Riyadh. Disappointed parties will be compensated with ministries and titles.
This jockeying among ailing, elderly men shows the gulf between the leadership and the population. Sixty per cent are under 21 and most have seen little of the country’s wealth.