Arms support a hazardous gamble for US
BY CONSIDERING giving weapons to Kiev, the United States could be contemplating a risky venture which advocates say would help end the conflict in Ukraine but opponents warn might fan the flames of war.
A senior US administration official said yesterday that no decision had been made on whether to send arms to help Ukrainian forces fight Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Consideration of such a move stems from frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to blink over Ukraine, despite Western sanctions and a financial crisis in Russia, and concern over a surge in violence in past weeks.
It also reflects a dilemma: What can the West do if sanctions don’t work, or don’t work quickly?
‘‘A stronger Ukrainian military, with enhanced defensive capabilities, will increase the prospects for negotiation of a peaceful settlement,’’ said a report by the Washington-based Atlantic Council, which suggested military aid should include light anti-armour missiles, drones and armoured Humvees.
Such words are welcome to Kiev’s pro-Western leaders, whose forces have suffered battlefield setbacks and who accuse Russia of backing the rebels. Russia denies the claims.
Sending arms to Kiev might not even have much effect on the conflict, critics say, and could encourage a full-scale Russian onslaught on Ukraine’s army that might increase the possibility of direct Western intervention.
‘‘Sending weapons is fanning the flame of this conflict and also actually grist to the mill for the Ukrainian Government, which is doing everything it can to drag the United States and West further into this dispute,’’ said Otfried Nassauer, head of the Berlin Information Centre for Transatlantic Security.
Western governments have shown little support for an international peacekeeping mission, which would likely have to include Russians and would be unacceptable to Kiev.
And a line of thinking may be developing in the West that Putin might respect only force and will blink only if his bluff is called.
By that token, he may change tack if Ukraine is provided with defensive means to turn the conflict into a prolonged struggle which Russia may regret.