Hard-left Corbyn in front says poll
JEREMY CORBYN is heading for a ‘‘knockout victory’’ in the Labour leadership race after almost doubling his lead over rival candidates, according to a new poll.
The hard-left candidate is 32 points ahead of his nearest rival, up from 17 points three weeks ago. A YouGov poll for The Times gives him 53 per cent of first-preference votes, an increase of 10 points, meaning that he would win the contest in one round. The other three contenders are falling dramatically behind.
Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, is down five points to 21 per cent; Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has lost two points to poll 18 per cent; and Liz Kendall, the only Blairite candidate, is forecast to get 8 per cent, down three points.
The vote for the next Labour leader, which comes after the party’s devastating defeat under Ed Miliband in the general election, begins on Friday (local time). All ballots must be cast by September 10 and the result will be announced two days later.
Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, says Corbyn is ‘‘heading for a knockout victory’’ despite entering the contest at the last minute with little expectation of winning.
In an article for The Times, he adds: ‘‘I would personally be astonished if Mr Corbyn does not end up as Labour’s leader – but I have seldom released a poll with as much trepidation as I have done this time.’’
Since the election in May about 190,000 people have registered to join the leadership contest ballot, almost doubling the total number of eligible voters. Labour has barred 1000 people who have tried to infiltrate the vote despite being members of other parties, amid evidence of entryism to propel Corbyn to the leadership.
Of the 10 percentage points Corbyn has gained in three weeks, four have come from Labour voters who have switched sides in that period, while six have come from the new cohort who have registered to vote since the general election, according to the poll of 1411 people eligible to take part in the contest.
They comprise fully signed-up party members, those who have paid £3 to vote without joining Labour, and union affiliates.
Women are considerably more likely to support Corbyn, with 61 per cent choosing him compared with 48 per cent of men, the poll shows. Almost a third of those polled are unsure he will lead the party to victory in 2020 but plan to vote for him anyway.
The results will cause shock waves in Labour circles, many having hoped that a Times poll last month showing a 17-point firstround lead would jolt members into rallying around one of the more moderate candidates.
Prominent appeals were launched by figures such as Alan Johnson, the popular former home secretary, and Jack Straw, the former foreign secretary, for the proCorbyn ‘‘madness’’ to stop.
Instead, ‘‘Corbynmania’’ took hold. Hundreds of supporters flooded meetings as the MP for Islington North toured the country to tell the masses about his ideals, which include campaigning for nuclear disarmament, renationalisation of the railways and an antiausterity agenda.
While Corbyn leads among all categories of voter, he is furthest ahead on first preferences among those who have signed up through their trade union. About 67 per cent of trade union affiliates support him.