‘Desperately predictable’
Why the ABs have plenty to fret about
THE Aussies have never been short of swagger. We can laugh at the British headline ‘Throw another Wimp on the Barbie’ after England’s Ashes victory, but it is funny because it is absurdist mockery. The Australians do wimp like Floyd Mayweather does modesty. They are a mongrel mob.
They finish what they start. They are the only team in world rugby who can beat the All Blacks in the last 20 minutes of a game.
Make no mistake, the weekend’s defeat was not a fluke. It has been coming for a while, because New Zealand have been playing predictable rugby for 18 months now. It has been coming because Australia have a bench that is full of hard men and mavericks, players who will crush you and stretch you when the lungs are burning.
Australia have won the final 20 minutes of their three games in this year’s Rugby Championship by 47-5. That is overwhelming superiority at the end of days. New Zealand have been covering up the cracks of recent months by the power of their performances in the final quarter of matches.
They may have thrashed Australia at Eden Park last year, but even then they did not blitz the Aussies at the end. In 2014 Australia outscored New Zealand in two of the final quarters of their three games. The game that got away was the 29-28 defeat in Brisbane, Ewen McKenzie’s final match in charge, when the Aussies were unsettled.
Steve Hansen bemoaned the fact that New Zealand were beaten at the breakdown for the second match in succession on Saturday, saying: ‘‘In the last two games we’ve been tidied up there . . . it’s an area we need to fix.’’
But the breakdown is just a symptom. Australia beat New Zealand in the breakdown and then ran them out of town at the end of the game because they were winning the collisions. They dictated the points of impact.
The All Blacks attack has been desperately predictable for a while now and sides are making huge spot tackles against them.
It is tiring when you are always being bashed behind the gain line and constantly retreating to salvage the situation. A couple of the All Blacks’ best situations in broken play came when Julian Savea or Richie McCaw swooped in for a quick pick and go. But the Aussies were waiting for the quick pass to the second receiver or the loop around the back.
The only area of the All Blacks’ attack which is functional at the moment is from the set piece. With Kieran Read picking up at the back, the All Blacks were able to use Aaron Smith’s pace spreading wide and the threat of decoy runners to confuse Australia’s defence. It was about the only problem Australia had, because their defensive formation was excellent. When New Zealand had the ball, Matt Giteau went to 10, Tevita Kuridrani to 12, Adam Ashley-Cooper to 13 and Drew Mitchell to the openside wing if possible.
I cannot remember a test which left New Zealand so many things to fret over. Again there were serious problems at the scrum.
McCaw is not the colossus at the breakdown he once was, but can you shift him across to make room for Sam Cane? Jerome Kaino stood out and Kieran Read was generally excellent, although the defenders are not all on the same wavelength yet.
Dane Coles made some big individual errors, Aaron Smith had his worst game in an All Blacks jersey and Dan Carter went from good to bad to worse. Strange then that Sonny Bill and Savea took so much flak then, and Kaino’s fine game went almost uncommented on. I wonder if All Blacks rugby is entirely over its racist bent when things go bad.
Worryingly the Aussies didn’t even play all that well. Stephen Moore and Mitchell both dropped easy early balls and Nick Phipps, who cost his team 15 points, was just awful.
But the decisive plays came in the final quarter of the match. New Zealand may be able to crush Wales and South Africa at the end, but Australia are a different proposition. They are becoming a serious threat next month in Britain, where they have won both their previous World Cups.
England and Wales, in the same pool as the Aussies, will be fretting. But New Zealand’s worries are far more immediate.
They have a lot of things to sort out before Saturday. Even more before October 31.