Dramatic changes in face of NZ

NEW Zealand’s Asian population is set to overtake the Maori population by 2038, according to projections released by Statistics New Zealand.

While Maori, Asian, and Pacific populations will increase in nearly all regions and territorial authorities between 2013 and 2038, those identifying as ‘‘European or Other’’ (including New Zealander) will represent a decreasing share of people.

The Maori population will make up nearly 20 per cent of the total population by 2038 – up from nearly 16 per cent in 2013.

The Asian population will increase from 12 per cent in 2013 to 21 per cent in 2038 and people of Asian ethnicity will be the biggest ethnic group in several parts of Auckland.

The Pacific population will also increase, from 8 per cent to 11 per cent. However, the ‘‘European or Other’’ population will drop from 75 per cent in 2013 to 66 per cent in 2038.

Just 1 per cent of the country’s population identified as Middle Eastern, Latin American, or African (MELAA) ethnicities in 2013, although this is expected to increase slightly. More than half of these people live in Auckland.

Ethnic populations in all areas are set to experience declining rates of population growth as their populations gradually age.

The subnational ethnic population projections give an indication of the future population usually living in New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas, 67 territorial authority areas, and 21 Auckland local board areas, for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: European or other (including New Zealander), Maori, Asian, and Pacific.

The projections are based on different combinations of fertility, mortality and migration.