Bush out of favour as Rubio top dog

FOR the first time in the race for the White House, the smart money is not on a showdown between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush next year.

As doubts gathered over the political skills of Bush, the former Florida governor’s campaign sought to reassure big donors by pointing them towards online prediction markets – but that reassurance has now disappeared.

For months these websites, where people stake money on electoral outcomes, have shown Bush as the favourite to clinch the Republican nomination. This largely reflected the view that he had won the ‘‘invisible primary’’ – the crucial scramble for money and endorsements.

However, while Bush has raised $120 million, more than twice as much as anybody else, he has failed to excite voters. He has now dropped from pole position in the Republican race, according to PredictIt, a prediction sharetrading market that is followed closely by political professionals, including Bush’s aides.

Bush has been perceived as being unable to project a clear line on issues such as the war in Iraq and has blundered over race and the economy. In South Carolina last week, Bush claimed that Democrats win over black voters by giving them ‘‘free stuff’’. He later said he had misspoken.

The gaffe was not the first: Bush had previously explained the sluggishness of the US economy by saying ‘‘people need to work longer hours’’ – proof, said gleeful rivals, that he was out of touch with a middle class already working some of the longest hours in the developed world.

The new favourite, by a whisker, is Marco Rubio, a telegenic Cuban-American Florida senator whose assured debate performances and frugal campaign machine have impressed Republican powerbrokers.

The demotion is a heavy blow to Bush, whose plans to run a policy-rich, upbeat campaign have been blown off course by Donald Trump.

Clinton also faces a rockier road than many had foreseen. The prediction markets still forecast that she will be the Democratic nominee, but they have her losing the Iowa caucus – the first event in the primary calendar – to Bernie Sanders, the leftwing Vermont senator.

Latest polling also suggests that Clinton could be badly hurt if Joe Biden, the vice-president, runs. A survey by The Wall Street Journal/NBC News suggests that Biden could strip minority voters from Clinton, tightening the race between her and Sanders.