Assad visit to Putin may signal bid to end war
SYRIAN President Bashar alAssad’s surprise meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could signal Russia is ultimately seeking a political settlement to Syria’s civil war, after weeks of heavy air strikes.
But the terms of such an arrangement are uncertain, and questions remain about whether Moscow will seek the departure of its longtime ally or try for a power-sharing agreement.
In a further sign that a diplomatic push might be under way to end the four-year crisis, Russia said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and United States Secretary of State John Kerry agreed to meet in Vienna this weekend with their counterparts from Saudi Arabia and Turkey – both firm Assad critics.
The Syrian president’s visit to Moscow, his first known trip abroad since war began in 2011, was announced after it happened, and raised intense speculation about the leaders’ motives – and a strong response from Washington.
‘‘We view the red carpet welcome for Assad, who has used chemical weapons against his own people, at odds with the stated goal by the Russians for a political transition in Syria,’’ said White House spokesman Eric Schultz.
If nothing else, it has underscored how emboldened the embattled Syrian leader has become in the wake of the Russian air strikes and Iran’s deployment of ground forces to fight alongside Syrian government troops.
Russia says it is targeting militants, especially those of the Islamic State group. But critics, including the US, say Moscow’s military intervention props up Assad and is likely to fan the violence.
Putin said that along with fighting militants, Moscow believed that ‘‘a long-term settlement can only be achieved as part of a political process with the participation of all political forces, ethnic and religious groups’’.
Assad said the Russian military operation had helped to halt the spread of terrorism and a political solution could only come after that threat was addressed.
Yet how long Russia is willing to continue its air strikes is open to question.
‘‘Putin is not going to fight there forever,’’ said analyst Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Centre.
Putin ‘‘needs a quick result after which he can announce a Russian military success’’, said Trenin, suggesting Russia would then put ‘‘the burden of the war’’ on Iran and Hizbollah.
‘‘For Putin, it’s important now to act not only as a military victor but as a political peacekeeper as well,’’ Trenin said.
‘‘Putin is perfectly aware that Assad is going to have to hand over power or divide it. The Syria that existed before 2011 cannot be restored.’’
Others, however, said that in welcoming Assad, Putin was signalling that Russia would be uncompromising about Assad staying in power.
‘‘It’s a serious statement meaning that Russia will continue to support Assad to the bitter end,’’ said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent Russian military analyst. ‘‘There will be no political settlement in the sense that the West sees it. The opposition must surrender and stop fighting Assad and join him, and that is going to be the political solution.’’
Commentators on Syrian TV hailed the visit as an endorsement of Assad’s legitimacy, reinforcing the notion he must be part of a future political solution to the crisis.