Mastering the art of the reshuffle
traditionally change, hope, optimism, big ideas and a fresh start. That’s why everyone was flummoxed by Little’s decision on King.
Little will argue that his big reshuffle is yet to come – that happens next month. But the clumsy way in which King’s reappointment came out – the day before Little was due to leave for China – suggests he knew full well it would overshadow everything else if he left it till then.
But Key also has some big decisions to make. He will likely mark the start of the political year with a reshuffle in early 2016 after mulling things over while on holiday in Hawaii.
Key has downplayed the likelihood of a big cleanout. But under-performing ministers like Sam Lotu-Iiga and Craig Foss should be worried.
Key is not afraid to dump ministers over performance issues. He could balk at dumping Lotu-Iiga from his executive altogether, but may want to install a firmer hand in the Corrections portfolio, which has been shambolic.
ENTER Judith Collins? Collins was a standout in the Corrections portfolio, which can make fools out of weaker ministers.
She has been in exile on the back bench since the last election – a lone casualty of the Dirty Politics controversy – and is unused to being bored.
That makes her a headache for Key. Her Sunday Star-Times column has cemented her position as the outlet for National’s conservative voice.
A recent column on politicians being too scared to alienate Centre voters was ambiguous enough to be taken as a criticism of either Andrew Little or John Key.
Collins has also made just enough noise about a looming Maori water rights row to suggest she could be the rallying point for a Conservative backlash on the issue.
She played a similar role in relation to the health and safety legislation, which Cabinet controversially watered down to appease nervy backbenchers.
And Collins has clearly positioned herself on the other side of the flag debate to John Key – and on the right side of National’s grassroots, where the push to change the flag has bewildered and angered many.
National’s provincial MPs have been feeling the full force of that backlash against the flag referendum in their electorates, where there has also been heavy polling confirming that most of their constituents don’t want a bar of change.
NZ First’s firm backing of the current flag only makes them more nervous. The Northland experience, where National lost a blue-ribbon seat to NZ First leader Winston Peters, weighs heavily on their minds.
Key’s options in relation to Collins are to either deliver the coup de grace to her Cabinet ambitions by passing her over again, or make it easier to control her by reinstating her to Cabinet.
But leaving Collins on the back bench won’t silence her and there is also the threat of a by-election hanging over that decision.
While Collins’ seat looks safe on paper, National does not want another Northland debacle.
Collins is seeking a return to Cabinet as a sign of her exoneration.
Caucus insiders are not ruling out her standing on principle and quitting to force a by-election if Key refuses to give her that.
The prime minister seems to be softening. Questioned on Tuesday, he seemed more positive about the prospect of Collins’ return to Cabinet than any time previously. It seems likely then that the two of them have talked about it recently.
But like Ardern, Collins is battling forces within caucus who oppose her return. Insiders suggest some ministers have told Key they don’t want Collins back around the Cabinet table.
Paula Bennett and Amy Adams are two names mentioned.
Key’s advantage is that his power over the caucus is unquestioned and absolute.
He goes into the reshuffle from a position of pure strength. What he says goes and he will back himself to carry whatever decision he ultimately makes.
Little is not there yet.