Sevens medal hopes take a big hit in London

Heartless and demoralising. That was the feeling after New Zealand were thrashed by the United States in the London Sevens quarterfinals.

With a bit of sevens wisdom, it’s clear a defeat at the hands of the Americans isn’t a shock.

But the manner of the defeat was.

The United States have morphed into serious contenders for the Olympic title under coach Mike Friday.

They defeated New Zealand three times in the opening two tournaments this year, although Gordon Tietjens’ men were heavily injury hit for two of those games.

And while they have suffered heavy defeats at other stages of the season, there were always legitimate reasons that explained poor performance. This was different. So close to the Rio Olympics, New Zealand were expected to be full of verve and fire as they hoped to send a message to the rest of the sevens world.

Instead they put forth their flattest performance in years in the quarterfinal, showing a worrying lack of fight as the USA pulled away.

The Twickenham media box was stunned as Perry Baker tore New Zealand to shreds.

The Americans won every fifty-fifty ball, they dominated the ruck, they outpaced their opponents and showed more heart when it mattered.

So where does that leave New Zealand, formerly favourites for a gold medal at the Rio Games?

Despite the performance, they remain top three hopes, but their grip on that top three is fading.

Fiji and South Africa are clearly the top two sides in the world. While New Zealand can still lay claim to being a top three contender, their hold on that claim is slipping by the tournament.

The pack has caught up with New Zealand and they’re finding ways to edge ahead.

The fact Tietjens is constantly hunting for new talent, talent that is left over from the rest of the New Zealand rugby beast, is catching up with them.

Make no mistakes, Tietjens remains a master coach, but his cattle are no longer the best in the business.

Sonny Bill Williams is beginning to make a really strong impact with hard running and well timed offloading, and the Ioane brothers, particularly Rieko, are genuine game breakers.

But Tietjens has always said you have to play sevens to be good at it.

Unfortunately for him, he’s had a team that has chopped and changed so much that you can’t say that of his squad in the way you’d like to ahead of a major tournament.

What this means is that Rio is no longer a certainty for New Zealand, and far from a probable medal. Instead it’s a lottery. Who knows how the balls are going to fall.