Where’s summer?
See-sawing temperatures here to stay
The calendar says it’s summer but so far the heat has done little more than flirt with capital-dwellers – and the see-sawing temperatures look set to stay.
And while Wellingtonians may be lamenting a lack of sun, some argue its not too bad, and it just feels cold after a hot summer last year.
But the thermometer doesn’t lie, with records showing Wellington’s mean maximum temperature for the first 11 days of January in 2017 was 18.6 degrees Celsius.
"That’s 1.7C below average, which is well below. That’s meaningful," Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said.
Our coldest morning so far was on January 5, when we awoke to a cool 6.5C, and since ’summer’ began, our maximum temperatures have been 0.9C cooler than normal.
The chilly awakening comes after New Zealand, and Wellington experienced its warmest average annual temperature on record in 2016, 13.9C, 1C more than usual.
Metservice communications meteorologist Lisa Murray said while the public might think it’s unusually chilly for this time, a lot of that perception comes down to what previous years have been like.
"From a Wellington perspective, we’ve had two really good summers in a row and I think people are comparing it with that," she said.
However, Murray said with more than a month of summer left, there should still be plenty of sunshine and warmth in store for most parts of the country.
"Historically and statistically, February is generally a better weather month right around the country and already there are places, mostly in the North island that are basking in it."
Brandolino said a series of cold fronts which have flicked up chillier-than-average southern air – and more of it – was to blame for the sub-par summer.
On Thursday winds up to 120km peeled billboards off two CBD buildings and saw grounds crew at the Basin Reserve dance with flying tarpaulins after the Black Caps test was stalled due to drizzle.
"Wellington has been affected by more than usual south to southwest winds," Brandolino said.
Whenever low pressure moves south in a hurry, it creates a wind funnel.
‘‘There’s all this air over the Tasman Sea being forced to go through Cook Strait and that’s like putting your thumb over the end of the garden hose, because [the air] has to move faster."
Niwa’s outlook for summer has predicted temperatures and rainfall hovering around average, but Brandolino admits it’s hard to tell what could really happen.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if we continued with this up and down, or traditional summer weather, coupled with un-traditional chilly bouts."
Traditionally, Hawke’s Bay is one of the warmest spots in the country each summer, and 2017 is no exception so far.
For Napier, the average January temperature so far has been 26.9C, a massive 3C warmer than usual.
Hastings had been warm since the year began, Brandolino said.
In the next week or two, we can expect bouts of chilly weather mixed with warm temperatures.