Affordable data plans threat to wi-fi
The wi-fi icon – a dot with radio waves radiating outward – glows on nearly every internetconnected device, from the iPhone to thermostats to TVs. But it’s starting to fade from the limelight.
With wireless carriers offering more affordable data plans, consumers don’t need to log on to a wi-fi network to avoid costly overage charges any more.
That’s a critical change that threatens to render wi-fi obsolete. And with new competitive technologies crowding in, the future looks even dimmer.
‘‘You could see a big switch,’’ said Tim Farrar, founder of Telecom Media Finance. ‘‘Your coffee shops may be less compelled to provide wi-fi for you now.’’
In an all-the-data-you-can-eat world, consumers’ use of wi-fi at public places like stadiums and airports will drop to a third of all mobile data traffic from about half, Farrar estimates.
This means businesses not upgrading public access wi-fi as often. Smartphone users might not even turn on their wi-fi capability, said Barry Gilbert, an analyst at researcher Strategy Analytics.
‘‘Customers are rational. When pricing incentives favour wi-fi, customers use more wi-fi. When pricing incentives shift, so does behaviour,’’ said Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson.
At home as well. In the United States, almost a third of people don’t use a home broadband internet connection because they have an unlimited data plan on their phones, according to a survey released by ReportLinker.
The erosion of wi-fi’s influence is likely to be slow and uneven.
While unlimited data plans make the technology less necessary for phones, many home devices, from a MacBook to an Amazon Echo, still use wi-fi to connect to the internet. Wi-fi also helps fill in gaps in some office buildings and homes that have spotty cellphone coverage.
Some wireless carriers also still rely on wi-fi networks to handle a large portion of the growing volume of internet traffic.
Putting all of that Netflixbinging and Spotify-listening on cellular networks could strain capacity.
‘‘Wi-fi has consistently stayed ahead in terms of performance and its ability to move large amounts of data,’’ said Kevin Robinson, vice president of marketing for the Wifi Alliance.
‘‘The market is going to decide which technology provides the best capabilities for the end user. To displace a technology like wi-fi is likely very optimistic.’’
Unlimited plans aren’t the only threat. Wi-fi has survived 20 years and spurred an industry of gear, service providers and chipmakers, mainly because its technology is open to innovation and it operates freely in the nation’s unlicensed airwaves.
Wi-fi now faces competition from other technologies that also run in those same frequencies.
A new system called LTE in Unlicensed Spectrum — or LTE-U, which depends on a combination of new small-cell towers and home wireless routers — risks congesting the spectrum upon which wi-fi relies.
In past decades, unlicensed airwaves were mostly known for their use by garage door openers, cordless phones, and the occasional baby monitor.
Now they’re full of traffic from wi-fi networks that connect smartphones, laptops, set-top boxes, game consoles, and a whole host of smart devices to the internet. As LTE-U moves in, wi-fi may get drowned out.
On top of all these threats to wifi is the coming spread of 5G, which promises to let consumers download a high-definition movie in less than a second.
In the nearer term, wi-fi is already starting to disappear from people’s daily routines. – Bloomberg