President Macron

It is tempting to see the success of Emmanuel Macron in the French elections, apparently on course to beat Marine Le Pen in the second round on 7 May, as the turning of the global populist tide. The widely anticipated confirmation of Angela Merkel in the German elections in the autumn would provide the final and most important chapter in that tale.

There is indeed a good deal of truth in all of that. Yet the people of France are dissatisfied with their lot. Above all, they are depressed by the inability of their economy to generate sufficient jobs.

The worry about Mr Macron is that, telegenic and personable as he is, he lacks the power that is needed to make France optimistic again. Without a strong political party machine behind him he will fail to win the necessary backing he will require to implement domestic reforms when the French elect a new Parliament in June.

He has made the right noises about slimming the French state, liberalising French labour laws, encouraging infrastructure investment and reducing business taxes. The worry is that France will resist those painful reforms the moment they start to bite. Without a strong political base, Mr Macron will struggle to implement change even if he has won the arguments and seen off Ms Le Pen. Has he the political skills and popular support to get the job done?