Hansen’s hubris is beginning to catch up with him
Steve Hansen and his mates have had a lot of deserved praise over the years, but they are going to have to take this hit on the chin. They may even have to go off for a head injury assessment.
They got their selections wrong at the weekend, they didn’t change their tactics anything like enough and they finally paid the penalty for playing almost no rugby.
Let’s get one thing straight. The Lions thoroughly deserve to be, at worst, level in this series. They were absolutely stiffed by Jaco Peyper in the first test. With five minutes to go the penalty count stood at 14-3 against the Lions at Eden Park in an even game.
The reffing was far more equable in the second test. There was a stretch in the opening 15 minutes of the second half when the Lions conceded six penalties in a row, but they had no-one to blame but themselves for that. What was so intriguing was that the Lions were able to come roaring back.
Their first try was a beauty that would have had the planet gurgling with pleasure if it had been scored by New Zealand. They created an extra man with Johnny Sexton running round the back of Owen Farrell, the revelatory Jonathan Davies as the decoy, and Elliot Daly coming in off the left wing. And note to All Blacks coaches, as if they need it, Anton Lienert-Brown rushed up and missed his tackle on Daly.
In dreadful conditions the Lions backs created an overlap for Anthony Watson. When he was stopped Maro Itoje - what a mistake not to pick him in the first test - drove the ball on, and then a miss pass gave Taulupe Faletau a one-on-one with Israel Dagg. It was a contest Dagg lost heavily.
But I preferred the second try because the Lions set up Ngani Laumape and completely did for the young man. Test rugby is a whole different level. Or at least it is if Australia or South Africa are not the opponents.
The Lions had continually been running Sexton and Farrell out the back behind the dummy runner. Ngani saw Farrell drop and drifted to pick him up. Sexton dropped the ball into the hole and Jamie George was away. Laumape had been exposed and when he dropped the ball minutes later with the match on the line, you doubted very much if he will be starting in the final test.
The hubris of the All Blacks selectors has caught up with them. They thought that any kid who made a splatter at Super Rugby could come in and play for the All Blacks at this level straight away. Rieko Ioane has been up and now down. Laumape was elevated before his time. Waisake Naholo was less than a replacement for the injured Ben Smith.
I can see Graham Henry shaking his head at all of this. He had seen this sort of razzle go wrong on the very biggest stage. That is why he picked Cory Jane and Richard Kahui on the wings at the 2011 World Cup. He wanted footballers who don’t make mistakes when the timbers are starting to creak under the pressure.
On Saturday, in conditions that were predicted, the All Blacks had too many strike runners and not enough footballers. SBW has been an accident waiting to happen, which is why he wasn’t trusted to start at the previous two World Cups. Ioane dropped a high cross kick that Watson would have scored off if he had been following up properly. Laumape was exposed. Naholo dropped an up and under with no-one near him.
The All Blacks selectors have some big decisions. You suspect Malakai Fekitoa will be selected and Lienert-Brown will move in a place, restoring the combination that played in the victory in Ireland last year. Julian Savea may also come back in.
Conditions are predicted to be mucky again, which is a shame, and I would prefer Aaron Cruden to start at 10, Beauden Barrett to move back, Dagg to drop on to the wing and Savea to come in on the left. But that may be a few too many moves for the All Blacks, who have shown a Pontypool-like aversion to moves so far in this test series.
The truth is they have created very little in two tests. The All Blacks have scored a try off a mistake, a try off a sequence of penalty awards and a try off a dominant scrum. The Lions have played way more football.
The All Blacks played zero in the first half of the second test. Even in the second half it was all first-up runners off No 9 and this time the Lions were ready for them. Barrett also had a poor day with his boot, both at goal and in the final 20 minutes of the match when he repeatedly gave the Lions good field position. He still has the odd fragile day at 10.
It’s so intriguing. The Lions have so far seen absolutely nothing to fear. At several stages they have taken control of the test matches, just as I suspect the players have taken control of aspects of selection. I will be surprised if we do not eventually learn that Murray, Sexton and Farrell played a big part in the dropping of Ben Te’o in order to pair Sexton and Farrell together.
But for perhaps the first time in his coaching career Hansen has some huge calls to make. He has been put under pressure. The All Blacks rarely get things wrong two matches in a row, but this is the hardest selection meeting they have had to face. The series is on the line and so are several exalted reputations.
Hansen and Grant Fox have to get this selection right and Ian Foster has to do a heck of a lot more with the attack. Murray may have missed Barrett off the scrum in Dublin, but he has adjusted his defensive line and doesn’t look like making the same mistake again.
It is a huge test for everyone, not least referee Romain Poite. All you want is consistency and an even hand for both sides. The Lions got that on Saturday. I suspect they will again for the final test, but it’s time for the All Blacks to show up.
They are not as good as many people seem to think but nor are they as poor as they have been in this series so far. It’s Eden Park. It’s glorious. And the All Blacks should just do enough.
They [All Blacks selectors] thought that any kid who made a splatter at Super Rugby could come in and play for the All Blacks at this level straight away.