Ohariu without Dunne
After 33 years and a close call last election, it was always possible that Ohariu might change hands this election. But a snap resignation and a new candidate has suddenly made things much more interesting, as Laura Dooney reports.
As far as electorates go, the make-up of Ohariu is not one that would necessarily catch the eye. The median age for people living in its suburbs sits in the mid-30s, the average income is higher than the rest of the country.
Other than that, there’s little to suggest the cluster of suburbs north of Wellington city would become the most talked about in this election.
It started with a poll suggesting 33-year incumbent and UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne might lose his seat in Parliament.
Soon after, Dunne resigned, and National MP Brett Hudson, who’d told everyone to vote for Dunne so he could help form a National-led government, found himself campaigning for the party and electorate vote.
Things got even more interesting mid-week when the Greens, who had opted not to stand a candidate so Labour could have a decent crack at de-throning Dunne, changed their minds and announced Tane Woodley would be their Ohariu candidate.
Shifting sands of Ohariu
On the day he quit, Dunne said he had done so because there was a ‘‘mood amongst Ohariu voters for a change of MP’’.
In his office on the 11th floor of Bowen House, he elaborates on what caused him to resign so close to the election and in one of the longest careers in Parliament.
Up until a few weeks ago, he felt comfortably in front and thought he could pull off his 12th win in the Ohariu electorate. But lately, he got the feeling something was amiss.
‘‘A funny thing was happening. I was noticing more people than ever were coming up to me on the street saying: ‘we’re with you, you’ll be right’.’’
It seemed like a good sign, but Dunne began to worry people were offering reassurance after ‘‘hearing other things’’.
The more pronounced it became the more he felt something was going on: ‘‘I could feel the sands starting to shift.’’
Jacinda Ardern being named leader of the Labour Party, and the party’s change in fortunes provided a vehicle for people thinking about change, but not sure where to look, Dunne says.
The Colmar Brunton poll released days before Dunne stood down had him at 34 per cent, behind Labour candidate Greg O’Connor who was on 48 per cent, but well ahead of the National candidate Brett Hudson on 14 per cent.
His inclination was to stay and fight, but he felt he didn’t have the hunger to do so.
National sat at 46 per cent for the party vote in Ohariu, with Labour on 35 per cent. The Greens were a distant third on 12 per cent, followed by NZ First on 4 per cent, The Opportunities Party on 1.8 per cent, and UnitedFuture, the Maori Party and Act all below 1 per cent.
Did he jump or was he pushed?
Massey University’s Professor Claire Robinson suggests Dunne was given the hard word from National to step aside and let voters give it both party and electorate ticks, after a poll of the electorate.
‘‘My position is National clearly decided they don’t need the 22,000 votes Peter Dunne brings in.
‘‘Voters were saying ‘we don’t want to do this any more, we’d rather vote for our National candidate . . . National would have said, ‘we can’t do this Peter, we need that, we need all those votes’.’’
Dunne strongly denies this theory, saying the first National knew of his resignation was when he told Prime Minister Bill English on Monday morning.
Jon Johansson, a senior lecturer at Victoria University, says Robinson’s explanation doesn’t make sense, though, given Hudson had sent out letters asking constituents to vote for Dunne.
Johansson says a ‘‘dose of polling reality’’ caused Dunne to quit.
‘‘I think Peter Dunne saw the writing on the wall. If you look at his electorate, the 11 contests he’s run in, six have been really close, and the last three have really looked like the electorate has been moving towards this moment.’’
Dunne won the seat in 2014 by a margin of just 710.
He agrees the most recent Colmar Brunton poll, which put O’Connor in the lead, was the final straw.
‘‘A funny thing was happening. I was noticing more people than ever were coming up to me on the street saying: ‘we’re with you, you’ll be right’.’’
The fight for Ohariu
After 33 years, Ohariu is now guaranteed someone new.
‘‘I hope they look to get an MP who’s committed to their interests,
who’s prepared to be there on a cold, miserable June Saturday morning to hear about their concerns, who’s focused on dealing with those rather than progressing their career,’’ Dunne says.
Johansson has ‘‘absolutely no feel’’ for who might take Dunne’s place.
‘‘It will make the National candidate’s job a lot easier without a split vote, that said, O’Connor is off to a very strong start. If Labour’s balloon remains inflated it’s very difficult to think a National MP, having only just last week sent out a letter telling everybody to vote for someone else, is going to be on track.’’
It is O’Connor’s contest to lose, irrespective of the Green Party’s Tane Woodley’s late entry into the race, Johansson says.
Robinson thinks Hudson will put up a fight, but needs to come up with a new script, beyond appearing as surprised as the next person that Dunne’s out of the picture.
‘‘He doesn’t have time for that. He needs to present himself as a committed candidate. He’s got to be out there all the time, at every opportunity, and be totally on message.’’
Robinson said transferring Dunne’s votes to Hudson in the last poll made him almost equal with O’Connor.
A government without Dunne
Before he resigned, Dunne tied himself to the National Party, and ruled out working with Labour.
What his resignation means for National differs depending on who you speak to.
Johansson says it has massive implications for the type of government that is going to emerge from this election. National is now unlikely to be able to maintain the status quo it had hoped for.
The party no longer gets a free seat, which is equivalent to about 0.8 per cent of a party vote. That isolates ACT leader David Seymour – National’s only opportunity of governing is in coalition with NZ First.
Robinson says the seat was not that significant. It gave the impression National was part of a coalition, but in practice that one seat – 22,000 votes – was not the deal breaker.
She believes National will do slightly better or just the same in the electorate, and Dunne’s stepping down doesn’t make any difference. National would have had to get in to bed with Winston Peters regardless.
For his part, Dunne does not feel he left National in the lurch.
‘‘Voters will still get to make the final call, not me.’’
UnitedFuture’s future hangs in the balance. The party has resolved to carry on, and has a healthy membership base, Dunne says. He’ll remain a party member, but his active involvement has come to an end.
‘‘It’s going to be tough, it’s tough for all small parties.
‘‘I think that’s a call that will be made in the next few months, not now.’’
33 years in the job
After he resigned, Dunne got an email from a constituent saying every time she sees him, she tells her children he was the man who saved her life.
Dunne can’t elaborate further except to say it had something to do with hospitalisation.
On a local level, he thinks he’s probably helped thousands, if not tens of thousands of people over the past three decades.
As a local MP he says he helped save and future-proof the Johnsonville train line, championed for Transmission Gully when no-one else wanted to know about it, and fought successfully to keep the Newlands volunteer fire station open.
He worked as a minister or under secretary under seven different prime ministers for just over 15 years in all, as part of both Labour and National governments.
He was key to bringing back 10-year passports, and oversaw the unification of the fire service. He helped create a national drug policy, and pushed New Zealand to take big steps towards making cannabis-based medicines more available.
He worked to get the country six months of daylight saving, oversaw tax changes in 2008, and was involved in the development of Working for Families and Kiwisaver.
In looking back on his time, Dunne is adamant he has not retired, he’s just changing jobs, but he has not decided what’s next.
‘‘I’m not looking forward to sitting on the deck and watching the roses grow.’’
The legacy Dunne leaves is as an effective electorate MP. He wouldn’t have survived the past few elections if it wasn’t for him being responsive to the electorate’s needs, Johansson says.
Robinson describes Dunne’s story as extraordinary, and says it is ‘‘completely unique that a oneman party should be so successful in being in cabinet for such a long period of time’’.
Who’s next?
Candidates in the electorate are well aware of the huge shoes they’re hoping to fill, and all acknowledge Dunne’s hard work.
O’Connor says he can offer a fresh perspective, and comes with an understanding of running a $40 million-a-year business. Hudson wants constituents to recognise National has the right plan for the country, and he could be a strong local voice.
Late-arriver Woodley says the Greens didn’t originally stand in the electorate because they wanted a change in government, and O’Connor was seen as the most likely to beat Dunne. Now he’s
hoping to increase the party vote, and has pointed to poverty, water quality and climate change and transport as national problems also seen in the electorate. Also running in the electorate is The Opportunities Party’s Jessica Hammond Doube, ACT’s Andie Moore, and UnitedFuture’s Bale Nadakuitavuki, in place of Dunne.
Dunne has some advice for whoever takes over, advice that was given to him when he was a fresh MP, by Sir John Marshall.
‘‘If you look after your electorate, it will look after you.
‘‘It sounded a bit corny at the time, but it’s right.
‘‘If you go the extra mile for them, and their concerns, you will be repaid.
‘‘That was sage advice, and I’ve tried to live up to that in my time.’’
‘‘It will make the National candidate’s job a lot easier without a split vote, that said, O’Connor is off to a very strong start. If Labour’s balloon remains inflated it’s very difficult to think a National MP, having only just last week sent out a letter telling everybody to vote for someone else, is going to be on track.’’ Jon Johansson, senior lecturer at Victoria University