Are the Greens doomed?
After weeks of turmoil it seems the 2017 election campaign has finally regained its equilibrium. Of course, I say that when it’s only been days since United Future leader Peter Dunne said he was quitting after 33 years and when we have the leaders of two political parties calling their opponents f...ing idiots and lipstick on a pig. In public. And then proudly advertising their behaviour. Welcome to the new normal. This weekend, National will launch its campaign - desperately hoping to regain some momentum after being stopped in its tracks by the Jacinda-effect.
Last week’s Labour campaign launch was packed to the rafters and the party faithful were euphoric after Jacinda Ardern got them back into the election.
Bill English may struggle to whip his supporters into a similar frenzy. But don’t read too much into that.
The National Party machine is as powerful as ever. In 2014, the Nats booked out a sports stadium and thousands of banner waving supporters gave it the feel of a US presidential-style rally. With even more at stake, expect this weekend’s campaign launch to be bigger than Texas.
Of course, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since 2014. Actually, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since last week.
So much has changed. It feels like there are dozens of burning questions that need answers before we go to the polls in four weeks. Here are just five that might be answered this week.
Who will win the debates?
You’ve heard it before but it’s true: Jacinda Ardern is a female John Key - she’s warm, funny, fast on her feet and very, very sharp. All the things Key used to devastating effect to beat his opponents in the televised debates. Bill English is also warm, funny, and hugely smart but is not so fast on his feet he doesn’t back his instincts as much as he should and mulls things over before coming out with a position. It can leave him reaching for answers.
On paper, English should have the better of Ardern - he has the policy background, the experience in spades and the reputation as a safe pair of hands. Just like Key’s first opponent, Helen Clark. But he has the advantage over Clark that he’s not as polarising with voters.
National may have missed a trick by failing to adjust its strategy after Ardern, however. While English was up against Andrew Little it did no harm ‘‘humanising’’ the former finance minister - the pineapple on pizza schtick, the dad jokes - but up against Ardern English should be playing to his strengths rather than his weaknesses.
That means sticking to his knitting as a statesman-like and sound economic manager, rather than playing the role of hapless dad and sometime prime minister.
Ardern on the other hand has to get through the debates without damaging her brand as a ‘‘breath of fresh air’’. If she starts to sound too much like a politician, the gloss could start wearing off.
The first of the televised debates - the much-publicised Hosking debate on TV1 - is Thursday. And don’t forget, of course, the Stuff debate on September 7. It seems unbelievable that the Greens might disappear as a political force at a time when concern about the environment has never been higher. But the Jacinda-effect is hurting the Greens badly. Take it with a grain of salt but National’s internal polling is said to have them on 3 per cent.
The new Labour leader is doing to them what Key did to his supposed allies on the right, ACT, by cannibalising their vote. But the Green brand is a strong one, so the prospect of them dipping out of Parliament altogether may be enough to bring some of their supporters back home.
Is the air going out on the Jacinda-effect?
Ardern was on the back foot earlier this week over tax - a sign that National has been getting traction in its attack advertisements claiming Labour will implement a raft of new taxes including a capital gains tax, a water tax, an inheritance tax and an increase in the income tax rate for high-income earners.
Ardern drew a line in the sand on some of those claims, including income tax and GST, but the attack ads are clearly proving persuasive on social media. Anecdotally, mischievous inheritance tax claims, in particular, seem to be sticking.
What’s going on with David Seymour and Gareth Morgan?
Both leaders have taken the moral high ground on policy but it’s desperate times in minor party land as Ardern’s emergence turns the election back into an oldfashioned race between the two major parties.
Morgan has been particularly preachy about taking the high road in politics but his billboard this week capitalising on the furore over his ‘‘lipstick on a pig ‘‘comments about Ardern is the shock-jock tactic of an attentionstarved party. Seymour, meanwhile, seems to be getting increasingly desperate for publicity - any type of publicity which may lend truth to the rumours that he’s in trouble in his Epsom seat, despite National’s patronage.
Where’s Winston?
It’s the burning question on the campaign trail this week. Peters refused to front for TV3’s The Nation minor party leaders’ debate - though that’s just the usual Peters sulk about being ranked with the other minor parties.
The NZ First leader resurfaced briefly for a Business NZ conference at which he took a pop at English for ‘‘arrogance’’ over his comments about not letting Peters be anywhere near monetary policy.
But Peters has otherwise been strangely low-key, with various stories doing the round including that he’s been shacked up at his bach up north. Everyone’s remarking about it because up until a few weeks ago, Peters was everywhere, and had an opinion on everything.
But the most likely explanation is that Peters is biding his time, having been around long enough to know that anything he does or says now would be a wasted effort while so much attention is focused on Ardern.
Peters is also canny enough to be using this opportunity to shore up his support in the Northland seat, knowing that further down the track in the campaign he will need to be doing more on the national stage.
So we’re assuming there’s no great mystery - though with Winston Peters the golden rule is never rule anything out. We’re at the business end of the campaign now and we’re all getting used to the new normal. It’s a daily diet of Jacinda Ardern and Bill English on the campaign trail getting down with the school children and lining up for selfies. So here’s who ended the week up and who’s down.
UP Labour deputy Kelvin Davis -
of the Maori TV debate. Crowd favourite and got away some of the best lines. Auckland Central MP gracious about her one-time rival in the Auckland Central seat, Jacinda Ardern, saying she wasn’t surprised by the ‘‘Jacinda effect’’ because Ardern was charismatic and caring. Finance minister
Steven Joyce Nikki Kaye
for managing to turn lower surpluses into a promise of tax cuts in 2020 and who’s been getting traction in his campaign against Labour’s tax plans.
DOWN
ACT leader - called NZ First MP Richard Prosser a ‘‘f...ing idiot’’ and then doubled down by fat shaming him. Unseemly and desperate stuff.
- admittedly deserved being criticised for advising people to sell their Contact Energy shares after threatening that NZ First would nationalise the business. Peters was later forced to issue a clarification that Prosser was out of line with NZ First policy. Broadcaster - he was wrong about the Maori Party and people who are not on the Maori roll being able to vote for them. Why doesn’t he just admit it and say sorry?
Prosser David Seymour Mike Hosking Is this the definition of irony?
star Gareth Morgan claims the sole reason for the existence of his The Opportunities Party is to debate policies not personalities. Or maybe not. When Morgan’s reference to ‘‘lipstick on a pig’’ to describe Jacinda Ardern’s leadership of Labour caused umbrage, he doubled down on the outrage by erecting a billboard repeating the line. Is that irony?