2018: What will it bring?
The Dominion Post’s political reporters have once again consulted their star charts, predicting what they think 2018 has instore for the new Government and the rest of the sad creatures who call Wellington’s Parliament buildings home.
We’ll be back to mark their efforts on December 31, 2018.
For the record, the bureau’s forecasts for the 2017 year just earned them a pass mark, with 107 points out of a possible 200.
THE LIST
1. National lead on Labour retains but a polling it narrows somewhat, as NZ First’s share of the vote remains low. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stays ahead in the preferred prime minister stakes.
2. National leader Bill English announces that after 28 years in Parliament and two election campaigns, he won’t stay on to see a third as leader in 2020. As he goes, he cites the need for ‘‘generational change’’.
3. The competition to replace English is fierce but mostly kept away from the prying eyes of the public. Likely contenders will include Simon Bridges, Nikki Kaye, Amy Adams, Jonathan Coleman and perhaps a couple of wildcards. Steven Joyce and Todd Muller?
4. KiwiBuild – the bid to build 100,000 affordable homes over
10 years – stumbles out of the gate, and the Government isn’t all that clear about how many new dwellings have been constructed. Estimates have it at less than 300, but the Government insists it will ramp up much more in the following year. 5. A member of Donald Trump’s family visits New Zealand and is met with protest. 6. The prime minister will announce her engagement to Clarke Gayford, delighting many but causing some to dismiss the news as a ‘‘distraction’’.
7. The Budget will feature few goodies, much of the cash already being spent in the mini-Budget – but there will be one or two headline-catching surprises.
8. A backbench MP will come under fire for a professional, or unprofessional as it were, indiscretion.
9. Kelvin Davis will stay on a deputy leader of Labour, despite a few more bad patches as acting PM.
10. The Green Party will select Eugenie Sage as its co-leader, surprising many who assumed Marama Davidson or Julie Anne Genter would take up the role.
11. The Kermadec Sanctuary Bill will be pulled from the ballot and cause a major rift between the Greens and NZ First. But after the spat, the Greens will back down and vote along government lines.
12. David Seymour’s End Of Life Choice Bill will end up narrowly passing, following a divisive national debate and some changes in select committee. It won’t go to a referendum.
13. The prime minister will be forced to require the executive. discipline of a NZ First member of the
14. Abortion law reform will not be openly pursued promise to by take the Government, it out of the Crimes despite Act. a
15. National’s Nicola Willis will enter Parliament when Wagner. a list MP retires – likely Nicky
16. Foreign Minister Winston Peters will be involved in international efforts to talk down North Korea.
17. A natural disaster will put the Government’s books out, breaking its Budget Responsibility Rules. Steven Joyce will still not have much support for his $11 billion hole claim.
18. There will be a political bombshell that will see the ousting of a minister.
19. Iwi leaders will take fresh water rights all the way back to the Supreme Court, after a broken promise by the Government to address this issue.
20. Jian Yang will remain on in the National Party, still pulling in serious donations as negative stories about possible Chinese Government influence continue to swirl. An inquiry will be talked about but not actually launched.