What now, after the first 100 days?
The latest Newshub poll shows Labour is more popular than it has been in years, but National is still ahead.
So that just happened. Jacinda Ardern has ticked off her first 100 days in office and you could almost smell the relief behind the press release marking the occasion. ‘‘We did that!,’’ it read.
It should have said, ‘‘I did that’’. The 100-day milestone might be an artificial one, but it has come to represent something more than the usual box-ticking exercise for Labour.
Ardern’s popularity and charisma were enough to carry her Government through its first 100 days in power while her ministers and minor party allies found their feet.
But the rest were going to need to catch up fast if Labour was to end the first 100 days looking and sounding more like a government than the cobbled-together arrangement of unusual bedfellows that it began as.
After a rocky start, they have done it. The powerhouses are Finance Minister Grant Robertson, minister of everything that moves David Parker, and – yes – Winston Peters, who came back from his summer break looking less curmudgeonly and more statesmanlike.
But more of Ardern’s ministers are starting to look more convincing after getting some momentum in their portfolios, though some have not yet learned the skill of avoiding being drowned in paperwork by their officials.
More significantly, the Government has done what it said it was going to do in its first 100 days – defying its critics and the gloomy predictions that such an unlikely and unwieldy-looking government could never work.
It’s ticked off its $2 billion families package, the cornerstone of Ardern’s pledge to tackle child poverty; interest-free tertiary study is in the bank; the first round of worker/union friendly industrial relation reforms is underway and the Government has set up a range of inquiries and working groups.
Ardern marked herself about a 7 for her first 100 days. But she was being typically hard on herself. She has continued to surprise on the upside, and not just over the big baby news. It took pragmatism, and steel, to carry the disparate forces of her Government through its first 100 days. She probably deserves a 9.
But let’s not forget this is not just Ardern’s first 100 days. It’s National’s first 100 days in Opposition for the first time in a very long while and NZ First and the Greens’ first 100 days learning what it’s like to live under the shadow of Jacinda.
So that’s the first 100 days. What now?
Labour
Ardern has stamped her mark on the country in the same manner as John Key and Helen Clark. But success by one measure still eludes her. Labour under Clark and National under Key both experienced a long streak of popularity in the polls, well ahead of their opponents. It’s not just about symbolism – it is an assertion of power.
The latest Newshub poll shows Labour is more popular than it has been in years, but National is still ahead.
Labour can of course win the next election with fewer votes than National, just as it did this one. But there’s a law of diminishing returns when it comes to picking off votes from NZ First and the Greens.
The Newshub poll showed National’s votes are stubbornly loyal. Even if some of them are sitting on the fence at the moment, Ardern’s Government has done nothing to talk them off it. Labour will have to work harder at it than many of its predecessors, because many of those voters are still angry at the manner of Labour’s win. But these are the voters who could could decide the next election.
There are two key areas of risk and opportunity for Ardern.
There are always going to be factors beyond her control, like natural disasters, ministerial scandal, a global financial crash – but it’s how she manages them that could make or break her Government. Key’s surefooted handling of a succession of disasters is what made his government.
The re-emergence of some of Clark’s former close aides – Mike Munro, G J Thompson and Heather Simpson – shows Ardern knows the importance of having wise heads in the room when big events happen.
The other risk? Managing expectations.
Labour activists, sector groups, the unions – all have expectations of Labour delivering more. The unveiling of Ardern’s child Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern: The honeymoon is in full swing, according to the latest Newshub poll. Ardern’s popularity is up and so is Labour’s. Finance Minister Grant Robertson: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s came to the 100 day party by confirming New Zealand’s rating outlook remains stable Chloe Swarbrick: Her medical marijuana bill failed but her star continues to rise in the Green Party.
DOWN
Paula Bennett and Steven Joyce, both right: There are caucus rumbles for them to make way for National’s next generation of leaders. Winston Peters: NZ First’s support has slumped in the Newshub poll, though Winston Peters won’t be too worried. Been there, done that – and his personal popularity has stayed up.
Chis Bishop and Nikki Kaye: Caucus rumblings forced the two National MPs into an embarrassing U-turn after they declared their support for Swarbrick’s bill.
Sloppers no more?
The Beehive is buzzing over a cafe makeover after the catering contract for feeding Parliament’s 1000-odd staff and MPs changed hands. Copperfields, or Sloppers as it’s long been known, is becoming the place to be. Our spies tell us the new caterers, Te Papa’s catering arm Icon, even nailed the all important cheese scone test – the result of days of exhaustive taste testing by the new chefs. Even more exciting changes are on the way when the MPs’ dining room gets the makeover treatment and is rebranded Logan Brown at Bellamy’s. We’re hearing it won’t just be the food that gets a revamp. The 1970s decor and dated tablecloths might also get the heave-ho.