Likely photo finish to National's leadership race
National MP Simon Bridges is in the lead to claim the party’s leadership, with multiple sources confirming he is within two or three votes of a majority.
But rival Amy Adams is chasing close behind and second-vote preferences could still see her in with a shot at snatching victory, when the caucus casts its vote today.
The decider will put an end to a two-week competition between the five hopefuls vying to replace retiring leader Bill English.
It’s a close race with Bridges and Adams out front; however, relative newcomer Mark Mitchell is understood to be comfortably holding third place, followed by Steven Joyce and Judith Collins.
Joyce’s camp disputes that order, however, saying none of the numbers being bandied about can be taken too seriously. His camp believes it is still a ‘‘strong threeway’’ race.
After the party goes into its closed-door caucus meeting, it will use a progressive voting system to elect a new leader. If a candidate clears 29 points – the number required for a majority – after the caucus has voted, then they will have won.
If not, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated before another round of voting takes place. This could continue until one contender gains a majority. A first-round winner would hold a commanding mandate but given the size of the field, this is unlikely.
Stuffunderstands Bridges has 26 or 27 votes, just shy of the majority in the 56-strong caucus. Adams is believed to be near 20 and Mitchell could hold up to 12 in his pocket during the party’s first rounds of voting.
However, a number of variables could apply. Mitchell’s vote-share could be the decider for the other two contenders, with the second preference votes of his support crew pushing either Bridges or Adams across the line. It’s not known if there was any co-ordination by MPs in that regard.
While National’s deputy leader will be decided by caucus separately – immediately after the leadership vote – the perceived preferences of the five would-be leaders could play a role.
There has been some speculation Joyce could play deputy to Adams, while incumbent deputy Paula Bennett is believed to be the preference of Bridges.
It’s likely Collins will put her hand up for the deputy role in the event she’s knocked out of leadership contention.
Today’s vote is likely to mark a new era for National – one that won’t include either John Key or Bill English, who ruled the party with an iron grip since taking charge in 2006.
It will also be the first vote National has had in some time, where the party hierarchy hasn’t publicly tried to influence the outcome.
English is set to close the book on a 27-year political career on Thursday when he delivers his valedictory speech to the House. Its galleries will likely be packed with close family and friends as he reflects on the highs and lows of a life dedicated to public service.
It’s believed that his departure will see MPs, key figures and former parliamentarians from across the political divide unite briefly to honour a career in which English has taken National to devastating lows, led the party’s MPs from the highest office in the land and spent eight years as one of our most popular finance ministers.
He’s looking forward to spending more time with his family, and pursing business opportunities