Beijing trip marks new political reality

Just a few weeks ago Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Government was being accused of mismanaging relations with New Zealand’s largest trading partner. A serious issue for the credibility of the Government if it were true, the heart of the issue appeared to be difficulties in obtaining a coherent message across the coalition.

News that the first official visit will soon go ahead comes as Ardern is more in control of the political narrative, and the coalition, than at no time since the election.

On Monday, she will pay a fleeting visit to Beijing, for meetings with figures including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

It is surely a reflection of how uncomfortable questions about New Zealand’s relationship with China were becoming that Ardern is even going for one day, as the country still emerges from the shock of the Christchurch mosque shootings.

Announcing the trip, Ardern almost seemed apologetic to be leaving the country so soon, even briefly. While this is understandable, given the questions over the Government’s handling of its foreign relations, not to mention ongoing low business confidence, it was essential that she make the trip, even if it looks like a box-ticking exercise.

The visit was, at one stage, poised to be far larger, before a business delegation was cancelled in the days after the shootings. But a visit of any type seemed unlikely until recently.

Back in February, New Zealand’s political class entered something close to a panic for several weeks amid fears that China was preparing for some kind of retaliation, as a once special relationship appeared to be deteriorating.

Although Ardern insisted that the only thing keeping her from her first trip to China as prime minister was scheduling clashes, events made this claim appear wishful.

The abrupt cancellation of an event to launch the China-New Zealand year of tourism, the unusual return of an Air New Zealand flight headed for Shanghai, and warnings of exporters having trouble getting products across the border added credibility to rumours that Ardern had been told she was not welcome until work was done to improve relations.

Given the total lack of transparency in the Chinese political system, it is impossible to know how real the problems were. The speed with which a trip has been arranged suggests the situation was less serious than some suggested. But there were certainly signs of confused messaging.

First was the handling of news in November that the Government Communications Security Bureau had decided Chinese company Huawei’s 5G technology posed a national security risk.

Then, less than a month after the Huawei announcement, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters said in a speech in Washington DC that New Zealand ‘‘unashamedly’’ asked for the US to engage more in the Pacific.

‘‘And time is of the essence,’’ he said, in comments not shared with Ardern’s office before being delivered, an incredible situation given they hinted at a strategic move away from China.

It was hardly the only move by an NZ First MP that appeared designed to prove the party’s outsized influence on the Government, and it would be inconceivable now, for basic political reasons.

Ardern’s flawless handling of the March 15 tragedy has won local and global praise, which is likely to translate into political support. Meanwhile, NZ First, which until very recently seemed determined to prove it was not bound by the same rules as the rest of the Government, appears to have gone quiet.

Even before Peters’ questionable handling of his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (where Peters failed to raise the issue the strongman’s use of footage of the Christchurch shootings for political purposes), it appears that the NZ First leader was in trouble.

Where previously he could resort to antiimmigrant rhetoric to try to boost support, the response of the public to the attacks makes this inconceivable. Were he to do so, the party might face an existential crisis.

Ardern’s newfound status seems even more incongruous with NZ First’s support than it did in her first year as prime minister.

The public does not tend to reward politicians who try to time elections for political advantage. But having at her side a deputy prime minister who has spent most of his career luring the anti-immigration vote, when New Zealand appears intent on proving itself to be welcoming, must make the prospect of an early election very tempting.

Previously NZ First seemed determined to create as much noise as it could to show its influence on the Government, in a bid to prove it is holding Labour and the Greens in check.

But polling below 5 per cent even before a tragedy which makes its place in the Government look uncomfortable, right now the goal may be to last until 2020.

The speed with which a trip has been arranged suggests the situation was less serious than some suggested.