Breakdown of security looms after disorderly EU exit

Gaps in security could open up within a month of a no-deal Brexit as heightened policing becomes unsustainable, a leaked official assessment has said.

The document, obtained by

sets out a timeline of challenges posed by a disorderly exit from the European Union on the first day, in the first weeks and after the first month.

It reveals official assumptions about how quickly adverse scenarios could develop.

Consumer panic and food shortages could develop within weeks of a no-deal Brexit, according to the assessment, which was prepared during Theresa May’s final days in No 10. Trade and passenger flows from Britain to the EU would slow on day one because of ‘‘additional process at border’’.

Since UK vessels would no longer have access to EU waters and viceversa there could be ‘‘possible friction at sea between UK/EU fishing vessels’’, it warns.

Britons living abroad could be unable to meet EU member state residency requirements and ‘‘may start returning to the UK, or ask government for help’’.

By the end of the first month security could be more challenging with ‘‘heightened policing resource unsustainable’’ and operational gaps emerging. Northern Ireland would also face law and order challenges.

The assessment says that the pound could settle at a lower level and points out that analysis by the Bank of England ‘‘suggests nearterm business disruption likely’’.

A government spokesman said: ‘‘We do not comment on leaked documents.’’

Yesterday the head of BMW warned that a no-deal withdrawal from the EU would be a ‘‘lose-lose’’ situation for Britain and Europe.

Harald Kruger, chief executive of the German carmaker, said that he had a personal message for Boris Johnson, the new prime minister, as he announced results.

‘‘Listen to the economy and listen to the people,’’ he said. ‘‘He needs to be in a dialogue with business. I would visit Johnson to tell him this.’’

Kruger, 53, is former director of BMW’s engine-making factory near Coventry and was in charge of BMW’s car manufacturing operations for Mini at Cowley in Oxford and Swindon and RollsRoyce at Goodwood in West Sussex. BMW employs 7000 manufacturing workers around Britain and has repeatedly warned that supplychain disruption would prompt it to repatriate work from Britain to Germany.

Ford, another big inward investor in Britain, also weighed in with warnings over Brexit. Joe Hinrichs, the head of automotive, said that no one knew what would happen at border ports in the event of a no-deal in October. ‘‘It’s a bit of a rocky road,’’ he said.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said that the automotive industry was facing ‘‘an existential threat’’. His trade organisation released figures this week which showed that before last month’s news of a £1 billion (NZ$1.85b) investment in electric cars by Jaguar Land Rover, commitments of foreign inward investment into Britain’s motor industry in the first half of this year totalled only £90 million. That compares with an average of £2.7 billion a year over the past seven years.

The downbeat assessment came as the majority owner of the crossChannel rail operator Eurostar warned shareholders that it could not guarantee the service would not be suspended in the event of a nodeal Brexit.

In a statement that contradicted previous assurances by the government and the company itself, the French national rail operator SNCF said that in the worst-case scenario, trains would not be able to run between Britain and France. the company’s