Bridges makes hay but road ahead bumpy
Before National leader Simon Bridges takes questions on his way into caucus every Tuesday, he gives reporters a little opening spiel.
Usually this treatise on why the Government and economy are both in the toilet doesn’t get picked up by media, who are keen to push Bridges on news stories instead of just his take on the world. This week that wasn’t the case.
‘‘When you’ve got an economy stalling, when you’ve got the first Ma¯ ori land occupation you’ve seen in a long time, it beggars belief that the prime minister right now is in Tokelau,’’ Bridges said.
‘‘We’re just not seeing the focus from a part-time prime minister and Government.’’
This attack makes no logical sense, and Bridges would have known this. The prime minister was in Tokelau working, visiting a group of New Zealand citizens who haven’t seen their prime minister in over a decade. Prime ministers generally work seven days a week and with ridiculous hours, and this is especially true on overseas trips.
But while it made no logical sense it made for a strong emotional argument. There is a sense among a subset of people that Ardern cares more for her international image for her domestic matters, that she would rather be chatting wellbeing with people thousands of miles away than actually embedding her Government’s work at home.
This isn’t true – Jacinda Ardern travels as much as John Key and
Helen Clark did – but it true to many, if only because overseas media love writing up Ardern’s antics so much more than they ever did with the others.
And while it’s true that these appearances in overseas media are generally good for a country that is always on the lookout for more bigspending tourists, the prime minister is supposed to govern her country, not just advertise it.
The very memorable part-time line marked a much more personal attack on Ardern than what Bridges had previously tried. The large and sometimes incoherent governing coalition has been an easy target for Bridges throughout his time as leader, but the PM has generally escaped his ire, possibly because she is simply so much more popular than he is.
And yet that popularity is exactly what makes her such a tempting target for the Right, who feel if they can just destroy the public’s confidence in Ardern, they can break down the foundation holding up the entire Government.
This attack was risky, and it’s understood National is not keen to take it any further for now.
Turning the next election into the Bridges v Ardern show would probably be one of the worst possible outcomes for National.
It’s unclear at this point if that risk paid off, but Grant Robertson definitely didn’t help the Government side when he leapt to her defence and suggested the attack had sexist overtones. He’s probably right (although Bridges denied it), yet Robertson should know the prime minister doesn’t need defending – just as Key ignored Labour’s ‘‘smile and wave’’ attacks, the Government would be better off simply smiling off anything Bridges throws at them.
Bridges taking on this risk was probably born of the confidence running through the MP for Tauranga’s veins, after a strong conference and pretty good poll on Monday.
The week got even better for Bridges as two lingering stories from more troubling times were cleared away: the police said Sarah Dowie had not broken the law with a text sent from her phone to JamiLee Ross and Maggie Barry was found not to have misused parliamentary funding.
After months of seeming disunity the Judith Collins problem appears to have been quarantined, although you can never ever write off a politician as canny as Collins.
The poll, which put National at 45 per cent, was good news without being great. On these numbers Labour and the Green Party would govern alone, and his personal ratings remain in the single digits. But it did show the election was hardly a done deal.
These good times for National will not necessarily last. The Government is understood to be unveiling its cancer plan tomorrow, a week after National revealed its, and the power of being in Government mean the coalition can just something in the area while National can only talk about it, even if it has taken Health Minister David Clark far too long.
Outside of cancer the Government has a long line of mental health and school funding announcements to make as the year goes on, and the huge overhaul of tertiary training to do.
National is keen to keep the focus almost entirely on cost-ofliving issues, much like the Australians did in their last election. These so-called ‘‘hippocket’’
issues obviously work to an extent but to rely on them too heavily would be a mistake.
A small tax cut doesn’t really help if you or your kids can’t buy a house, or get to see a psychiatrist, and the big-tent party doesn’t have the appetite to seriously slash the Government to the point where those tax cuts get massive.
The party also wants to make hay on any Government moves on climate change. Bridges, who has always had a firm control of the party’s climate change position, took an even firmer hand this week as he took the portfolio off the affable Todd Muller, who has built a relationship with minister James Shaw, and gave it to Scott Simpson.
Bridges and the party have been having a lot of fun ripping into the Government’s climate change policies while not quite crossing the line into outright denialism, but should travel with care. This issue is only going to increase in salience, and while the rural base might still find it hard to believe in, two-thirds of New Zealanders live in urban areas.
Another obstacle facing Bridges in the longer term is the cantankerous Winston Peters.
His party is currently polling below the 5 per cent line, but Peters has promised he will stand again and is well known for defying the polls. His implicit pitch to rural voters will be as an insurance policy against a Labour/Green government, yet he will leave the door somewhat open to working with National, if only to keep his bargaining hand strong.
Key decided in 2008 to actively rule out working with Peters. This was a huge risk but it paid off as Peters left Parliament and Key was left to govern with a freer hand.
Bridges has made no such decision yet, but is understood to be planning on making one early in the new year.
Whatever decision he makes, it is very hard to envision a productive relationship between the pair, as Peters has spent the past year and a half insulting him in all manner of ways. That said, he’s never suggested Bridges works part time.
Turning the next election into the Bridges v Ardern show would probably be one of the worst possible outcomes for National.