The impact scenarios
WELLINGTON
❚ Very intense shaking, particularly damaging to vulnerable buildings (eg unreinforced masonry buildings).
❚ Impact on CBD area comparable to that in Christchurch CBD following February 2011 earthquake.
❚ Almost all buildings are damaged. About 50 buildings have collapsed partially or completely.
❚ Severe landslides across region will take weeks to clear. City is isolated from rest of country.
❚ Liquefaction occurs around Petone, Wellington CBD, Evans Bay and Kilbirnie. Roads, pipes and cable network damaged.
❚ First tsunami reaches south coast after 10 minutes. Larger waves strike after 40 to 60 minutes. Maximum height of 7-8 metres.
❚ Inundation extends up to 2km inland of Petone and about 4km up the Hutt River.
❚ Worst hit areas are Lyall Bay and Eastbourne, though there is also significant inundation in Seatoun, Evans Bay, the CBD, Petone and Seaview.
❚ The southern end of the runway is inundated and covered in several centimetres of sand and debris.
❚ Fires break out. Debris and lack of water make them difficult to fight and contain.
❚ The intense shaking leads to widespread self-evacuation but some people are caught in the tsunami. Casualties are disproportionately distributed among the less-mobile, such as the elderly and disabled, and those living in areas where waves struck most quickly.
❚ Electricity, gas, water and wastewater are cut off. It will take seven to 10 days to repair electricity network. Water supply will take months to fully restore.
❚ Total casualties equals 500 fatalities and 5000 injuries. Further casualties because of fire and disease will depend on emergency response.
NAPIER
❚ Intense shaking in and around Napier. Ten buildings in the city collapse, with minor to moderate damage to most others.
❚ Liquefaction is widespread, with very high levels in CBD, Meeanee and around the airport.
❚ Marshland near airport subsides, causing strong currents to start flowing from the Ahuriri lagoon.
❚ First major wave hits coast after about 20 minutes, reaching its peak at around 30-50 minutes, causing widespread flooding north and south of Napier. Second, more severe, wave peaks at 140 to 160 minutes after quake.
❚ Waves cause severe damage to houses in Westshore, Ahuriri, Clive, Haumoana and Te Awanga.
❚ Napier is cut off by road. Rail line will take weeks to repair. Airport is unusable die to tsunami damage, liquefaction and subsidence. The port is severely damaged.
❚ Large numbers of people evacuate to Bluff Hill. Residents at Westshore, Clive and Haumoana face difficult evacuation because of liquefaction. Most casualties occur in Westshore and Clive areas where damage to roads and bridges makes emergency access difficult.
❚ About 200 people die, and some 700 are injured.
❚ About 2000 people cannot return to their homes. Hastings does not suffer as much damage. Many Napier residents relocate to Hastings once roads are cleared.
❚ Three days after the earthquake, a gastroenteritis outbreak occurs.
REST OF COUNTRY
❚ In Auckland, there is damage to some buildings, with about 200 people injured.
❚ Power is cut for about three hours in Auckland and most of the North Island.
❚ Ports and airports in Auckland, Tauranga, Palmerston North and Christchurch must cope with additional flights and ships that can no longer land or dock at their original destinations.
❚ Ferry services between the North and South Islands have been suspended because of damage to the port in Wellington.
❚ Slips close SH1 in Marlborough.
❚ Helicopter operators are busy ferrying people and helping restore infrastructure.