Five things we learned from Nevada
The magnitude of Bernie Sanders’ victory has reshaped the Democratic race. He went to Nevada after a narrower than expected win in New Hampshire and, with the South Carolina primary coming up next, which he lost by more than 47 percentage points four years ago. He left with proof that he could put together the sweeping coalition he has promised, with polls suggesting he could win in South Carolina.
His age increasingly looks like a plus for many voters, impressed by the consistency of his positions over many decades. He also has the overwhelming support of younger Americans, who are less suspicious of socialism than their parents. Best of all for Sanders, the Nevada caucus did not winnow the field, which remains crowded with moderate candidates taking votes off each other.
Joe Biden was the nearest thing to a winner among the also-rans. Limping into the contest after weak finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, he finished second and was the only candidate to beat Sanders in key demographics (he won black voters and those aged 65-plus). ‘‘I think we are in a position to move forward in a way that we haven’t been until this moment,’’ Biden told supporters.
If Biden wins decisively in South Carolina, where two-thirds of the primary electorate is black, he can build an argument that he is the only credible alternative to Sanders. If he loses (and recent polling shows him shedding African-American support), he will struggle to recover.
No candidate suffered more from the high proportion of early votes in Nevada than Elizabeth Warren, whose outstanding debate performance last week came too late. She has had her best fundraising patch of the campaign since then, but badly needs another eye-catching debate tomorrow, when she will be expected to land punches on Sanders as well as the moderate candidates.
Pete Buttigieg’s momentum stalled after he beat expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire. His low support among non-whites (he won 10 per cent of Latinos and 2 per cent of black voters) poses a threat to his prospects.
His strengths in door-to-door campaigning will also be less valuable once the race goes national after South Carolina. His best hope is to become the antiSanders candidate (young, centrist, flexible) and he is already positioning himself that way.
Michael Bloomberg was not on the ballot in Nevada but another billionaire was. The activist Tom Steyer spent more heavily than any other candidate but made little impression, raising questions about the effectiveness of Bloomberg’s advertising-led pitch. After his humiliating debate debut last week, Bloomberg will be fighting to prove his viability tomorrow. –