The coronavirus election challenge
If the exclusive coronavirus poll tells us anything it’s that the people are afraid. Travel plans are being changed, less than half of New Zealanders aren’t happy with the Government’s response and four out of 10 are worried about catching Covid-19. It makes for grim reading.
Even more worryingly, only 39 per cent of New Zealanders think their doctors are well trained to handle the situation.
The good news for the Government is that it is not alone. While only 47 per cent of Kiwis think the Government has done a good job, the figure in Australia is barely higher at 52 per cent – and that’s after Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been a man of action following his woeful mishandling of the bushfires in December and January.
Kiwis almost universally know about the virus and think it will negatively affect the economy.
According to the Minister of Finance, Grant Robertson, business is starting to see green shoots out of China and things are looking up. Yet as New Zealand has now two confirmed cases of the virus – the latest case is a woman with children – even if the supply chain situation is remedied, the local effect of the virus spreading here will have a big effect on growth.
That makes the political challenge for the prime minister and her ministry twofold: first the Government needs to get the response right. On Tuesday Robertson repeatedly used the language of ‘‘interventions’’. The quantum, speed and design of any interventions will be crucial, not just to help particular sectors or parts of the country hit particularly hard, but to provide reassurance for the public.
That’s the actual challenge. Then there’s the political challenge to convince voters that what’s being done is sufficient, timely and competent. If that is achieved then, over time, the numbers for the Government’s handling of the issue should increase.
At the start of every election year you know that something will emerge that will shape the poll. Heading into the end of last year, who even knew what coronavirus was? When the election was called in January, New Zealand was just monitoring the sickness.
Now it looks like the Budget, economy and ultimately the election will be shaped by the illness. Hopefully, like SARS, and bird flu, Covid-19 will fade into the background over the next couple of months. But if it doesn’t it will either make or sink the Government.