Island Bay route may see more homes built

A mass rapid transit route to Island Bay would provide more opportunity for housing development than a route to Wellington Airport, according to a Let’s Get Wellington Moving working paper.

Risks from natural hazards such as flooding and earthquakes would limit the housing that could be built around the route in Kilbirnie and Miramar, the paper said.

Mass rapid transit – likely light rail or new-generation electric buses – is a cornerstone project of the $6.4 billion Wellington transport programme. A business case revealing the preferred option is due to be released later this year.

Rapid transit from the railway station to the airport has long been considered the favoured approach, but a route to Island Bay via Newtown is understood to be looking increasingly likely.

The technical assessment working paper on land use and urban development was produced in February. The paper was released to Green MP Julie Anne Genter under the Official Information Act.

‘‘An alternative route heading south through Berhampore and Island Bay would enable more feasible intensification in these suburbs, particularly as they also have lower natural hazard risk and better ground conditions than much of Kilbirnie and Miramar,’’ the report said.

It estimated between 27,000 and 40,000 home dwellings could be erected in Wellington because of the Let’s Get Wellington Moving work.

The future transit line will play a key part in responding to the capital’s housing shortage. Areas within a 10-minute walking catchment of railways stations have been zoned for sixstorey development as part of the spatial plan passed by Wellington City Council in June.

That plan also identified issues with denser housing in Kilbirnie and Lyall Bay due to risks of sea-level rise, flooding, ground shaking, liquefaction and tsunamis. ‘‘We consider these hazards to be relevant ‘qualifying matters’ that may mean the six-storey minimum building height required ... is not appropriate across these areas,’’ the council plan stated.

Genter said she received advice from transport planners during her time as associate transport minister that suggested Island Bay made more sense as a rapid transit transport spine and may be cheaper to build because it would not require a new tunnel. ‘‘On top of the lower cost and transport planning reasons, housing is a major advantage because that’s one of the key rationales, to enable more affordable housing close to rapid transit,’’ she said.

‘‘In a climate emergency, that has to be higher priority than rail line to the airport. Really, this project is about Wellington as a place to live, not just airport route.’’

Wellington city councillor Fleur Fitzsimons, who represents the Paekawakawa/Southern ward, said there was merit to the idea.

‘‘When I first heard it might go to Island Bay I thought that seems unusual, but actually the more you think about it and look at the evidence, it makes sense,’’ she said.

‘‘When you think about the difference it could make to the use of public transport around Wellington, the prospects are really exciting.’’

The two proposed routes would roughly mirror the No 1 and 2 bus routes to Island Bay and Miramar respectively. Those bus services are the busiest in Wellington, each averaging 230,000 passengers per month in the second half of 2020, though there are other services covering parts of both routes.

Let’s Get Wellington Moving has been approached for comment.