‘We are still on the knife edge’

The steady rise of Covid cases in Auckland means it’s more likely the virus will again leak out of the city ahead of the Government announcing any further easing of its level 3 restrictions, with one expert calling for a renewed focus on its border.

Yesterday’s 60 new cases, 56 of which were in Auckland, would have been infected before pandemic restrictions were wound back on Wednesday under the Government’s three-step plan. But any further easing could see things ‘‘spiral very rapidly’’, Professor Michael Plank, from Te Pū naha Matatini and University of Canterbury, said.

‘‘It’s much too early at the moment to be considering easing further any restrictions because we are still on the knife edge,’’ he said. ‘‘Any further loosening of restrictions until we have got a picture of what the consequence of the most recent easing was could potentially cause things to spiral very rapidly.’’

A plan to relax Auckland’s level 3 lockdown despite ongoing Delta infections, announced last Monday, ended the use of the elimination strategy.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the Cabinet would review the dates for the second and third steps, which involve more retail and hospitality venues opening under conditions, every week. Since then, the virus has leaked into Katikati, in the Bay of Plenty, and plunged Northland, which has some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, into alert level 3.

But a steady rise in Auckland infections increased the likelihood of the virus again leaking out of the city, where it had the potential to ‘‘devastate’’ vulnerable and unvaccinated communities.

Plank said it wasn’t clear how the Government planned to prevent further spread out of Auckland.

‘‘This is probably the most uncertain part of the pandemic since the beginning,’’ he said. ‘‘We have moved from the relative certainty of the elimination phase into the stage where we are seeing increasing cases in the community, and we are relying on a combination of restrictions and the vaccine to keep a lid on case numbers as we get more people vaccinated.’’

About 19 per cent of eligible New Zealanders, or more than 820,000 people, have not had a

single dose of the Pfizer vaccine. Ministry of Health data released last week shows poorer and browner neighbourhoods are under-vaccinated while more affluent, whiter suburbs have higher rates of vaccination.

Dr Dianne Sika-paotonu, an immunologist at the University of Otago, said the jump in cases called for renewed focus on the border to prevent any more leakage.

She called for ‘‘immediate focus and attention’’ on the Auckland border to make sure the virus didn’t leak out again. More cases would also add more pressure to hospitals and risked the health system being overwhelmed.

‘‘We’re at risk of our health system becoming overwhelmed given it was already under strain even before the pandemic began. Accelerated vaccination, testing efforts must continue in a way that reduces barriers for people and that builds trust.’’

University of Auckland microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles said a lockdown would be the only way to stop hospitals from being overwhelmed if cases were to snowball and more people needed hospitalisation.

But she hoped New Zealanders were still following pandemic restrictions; contact tracing and wearing a mask. ‘‘My hope is that we haven’t given up yet. The public health officials are still doing what they can to contact trace and to put people into isolation. It’s really important that the rest of us don’t behave like we’ve given up.’’

‘‘This is probably the most uncertain part of the pandemic since the beginning.’’ Professor Michael Plank Te Pūnaha Matatini and University of Canterbury