China, climate change ‘rising threats for NZ’
New Zealand’s security is increasingly threatened by a more powerful China, growing militarisation of the Pacific and the acceleration of climate change, according to a new Defence report.
An unclassified version of the defence assessment, a policy document released for the first time since 2014 yesterday, outlined problems New Zealand faces as the global environment worsens, the international rules-based order is challenged, the potential for conflict in the Pacific rises, and China’s military grows.
‘‘The trajectory is negative. There’s nothing that we see in the environment at the moment that would say that it’s going to get any more positive,’’ said Secretary of Defence Andrew Bridgman during a media conference at Defence House in Wellington.
The assessment offered a stark view of the security challenges New Zealand faces, in contrast to the Government’s often soft-spoken approach to acknowledging the threats.
Defence analysts were quick to question whether the Government was prepared to sufficiently respond.
Indicative of the Government’s direction on defence was a list of three defence priorities announced by Defence Minister Peeni Henare alongside yesterday’s report – people, infrastructure and the Pacific.
Henare’s direction to the defence agencies had a heavy emphasis on matters closer to home, including a focus on culture and diversity, and improving the substandard housing many soldiers live in.
‘‘Identifying threats is one thing. However, what is critical, and what partners will be interested to know, is whether New Zealand will commit the resources to responding to the challenges outlined in the defence assessment,’’ said Dr Anna Powles, a Pacific security studies expert and senior lecturer at Massey University.
‘‘The prioritisation of the Pacific is overdue and speaks to a shoring up of concerns across Government that New Zealand’s national interests and influence are being undermined by a third state actor.’’
The assessment said the military would increasingly find it difficult to maintain effective capability, work with partners and contribute to security operations. It argued for a more ‘‘proactive’’ response from the Defence Force and Ministry of Defence.
It said the two threats New Zealand primarily faced were strategic competition and climate change – which would intensify natural disasters, existentially threaten Pacific Islands and strain
‘‘The trajectory is negative. There’s nothing that we see ... that would say that it’s going to get any more positive.’’ Andrew Bridgman Secretary of Defence
political systems.
It catalogued a series of concerns about China, which was a ‘‘major driver of geopolitical change’’ as it sought to reshape the world in the image of its ‘‘governance model and national values’’.
‘‘China views an increased presence in the Pacific as part of its natural progression towards its global goals.’’
The assessment said the ‘‘most threatening’’ developments include the construction of military or dualuse bases by countries not aligned with New Zealand, military supported resource exploitation,
and military confrontation.
The construction of a base could ‘‘fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region’’, the assessment said.
Bridgman said militarisation in the Pacific and the building of bases by ‘‘countries that don’t have the same values as us’’ would be a problem.
‘‘Another problem would be countries using their military to exploit resources in the Pacific.’’
Henare, speaking alongside Bridgman, said there was no distance between the Government’s defence priorities and the needs outlined in the defence assessment. But he would not commit to the prior Labour-led coalition government’s military spending plan for the coming decades. Henare has since late2020 signalled he would be reviewing defence spending, in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Chief of Defence Air Marshal Kevin Short said it would take ‘‘a couple of years’’ to rebuild the capability of the defence forces once the Defence Force finished guarding managed isolation facilities and international travel for military exercises resumes.