Hospitals brace for Omicron
Authorities anticipate that Omicron will become the predominant Covid-19 variant in New Zealand within just two to four weeks of it being introduced into the community – and hospitals are bracing to be ‘‘swamped’’.
New Zealand has so far been spared the Omicron outbreak happening in many countries worldwide, but experts say it is a matter of time before the highly transmissible variant seeds in the community.
Though Omicron appears to be less severe than Delta, its sheer infectiousness means case numbers and hospitalisations have soared overseas, and a doctor fears that the inevitable ‘‘onslaught’’ of cases will ‘‘overwhelm an already overwhelmed health system’’.
Dr John Bonning, a frontline emergency department doctor and immediate past president of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine, said EDs were already under ‘‘enormous duress’’.
Stuff reported last week that people with Omicron were 50 to 70 per cent less likely to need hospital care than those with other variants of Covid-19. However, reduced hospitalisation rates could be exceeded by increased rates of infection.
A Ministry of Health spokesperson said work was under way to understand the impact of Omicron infections on hospital capacity, but international evidence suggested that new cases ‘‘spread rapidly’’.
The ministry did not have modelling on what level of Covid19 hospitalisations would overwhelm the system, but said effective response management was ‘‘key to limiting the demands on hospital capacity’’.
On Wednesday, with just 31 Covid-19 patients in hospital, 65. 2 per cent of intensive care/high dependency unit beds and 84.4 per cent of ward beds were occupied across hospitals nationwide. Nearly one in five (18 per cent) of ventilators were in use.
The ministry spokesperson said ‘‘significant work’’ had been done by DHBs to prepare for managing Covid in the community and any surge in cases. This included planning to share resources and co-ordinate responses, as well as identifying staffing needs.
Bonning said the hospital system was ‘‘in crisis’’.
Patients were waiting up to eight hours just to be seen, and 12 to 24 hours to be admitted, and ambulance-ramping (where people could be taken into an ED because there was no space) was already happening, he said.
An Omicron outbreak would be ‘‘really, really difficult’’, Bonning said. Even though many cases of Omicron would be mild, some could be severe, and it was the ‘‘sheer volume that is going to get us’’.
Bonning anticipated that once Omicron was in the community, there would be hundreds, if not thousands, of cases every day.
He said EDs were bracing to be ‘‘utterly swamped’’. He envisaged DHBs cancelling elective surgeries and clinics to manage the surge, including ‘‘discretionary’’ care such as cancer diagnostics.
If someone did not acutely need a hospital bed, that care might need to be deferred, he said.
Bonning cautioned the public to look after themselves and avoid preventable injury.