Return of the kingmaker
A new political poll has NZ First leader Winston Peters once again in the kingmaker position, reclaiming a place in Parliament and deciding the next Government.
A Horizon Research poll, provided exclusively to Stuff, showed NZ First – fresh off the back of holding a party conference and a year out from the election – had crossed the vital 5% threshold of the party vote required to enter Parliament, with 6.75% support.
Labour had an edge on National. However, neither had enough support to govern with their respective traditional coalition partners, the Greens and ACT. If the 2023 election returned this poll’s outcome, Peters would be the deciding factor.
“Between the major parties the contest is close. Labour is ahead of National in large and regional cities, and close to National in small towns and rural areas,” said Graeme Colman, Horizon Research’s principal.
“If NZ First should not achieve an electoral seat or 5% of the vote, then the contest is very close.”
The poll placed Labour at 31.37% support, which would give it 40 seats in Parliament. National garnered the support of 28.32% of those surveyed, considerably lower than other recent poll results have indicated, an outcome that would give it 37 seats.
Both the Green and ACT parties gained a higher level of support in the poll than they received in the 2020 election. The Green Party was at 11.87% support, earning it 15 seats, an increase on its current 10 MPs. The ACT Party, which also has 10 MPs in Parliament, gained the support of 13.07% of those polled, which would give it 17 seats.
Te Pati Māori, at 1.74%, could be presumed to gain two seats in Parliament if it retained an electorate seat.
If an election were to return these results, neither a LabourGreen coalition, at 55 seats, nor a National-ACT coalition, at 54 seats, would have the required 61 seats to form a government. Te Pati Māori’s two seats would not make the difference.
NZ First, at 6.75% and nine seats, would once again decide whether Labour or National governs the country, as it did after the 2017 election.
The outcome comes from a survey of 911 adults who were registered to vote and, unlike other major polls, were certain they would vote. The poll had a margin of error of 3.2%, meaning NZ First’s crossing the 5% threshold was within the margin of error.
The poll was conducted between October 20 and 25, a week after Peters launched a 2023 campaign at NZ First’s annual conference in Christchurch.
Peters continued a “listening tour” across the country yesterday, telling an audience in Gore: “We are campaigning to return to Parliament in 2023.”
The Horizon Research poll
showed NZ First’s strongest support came from regional towns and rural areas, where 9% of those surveyed supported the party. Of those who said they would vote NZ First, 23% were above 75 years of age and 63% said they voted for the party in 2020.
Labour had retained the support of 58% of those surveyed who voted for it in 2020, losing 10% of its supporters to National and 7% to the Green Party.
National retained 78% of its 2020 supporters, with 3% headed to Labour and 4% to ACT. Labour had more support among those surveyed in large cities and regional cities, at 29% and 32% respectively, compared with National at 26% in each.
National edged ahead in regional towns, at 26% to Labour’s 25%, and in rural areas National had greater support at 29% to Labour’s 27%.
Of those who intended to vote ACT, 67% voted for the party in 2020 and 10.5% were National voters in 2020.
The minor party had its greatest share of the vote in regional towns, at 17%, than elsewhere.